by Gary Mintchell | Aug 16, 2024 | Commentary, News, Podcast
Podcast Audio and Video Posted
Many times in my career I have hired into a company during the initial surge of a market. Good jobs. Excitement. Opportunity to work on new things. Then the market matured or collapsed usually due to external forces such as technology changes or consumer behavior.
I hit recreation vehicles at a high point followed by high inflation and gasoline price surges. Then a consumer product company where Consumer Reports published a poorly researched article—but the external market also changed. Then PC peripherals. The latest was automation where a few of us started a magazine to cover it. The market was good for about 10 years. Then we went into brief cycles of IIoT, edge, networks, collaborative robots, IT companies looking at the manufacturing market.
This podcast began life in 2007 as Automation Minutes. I morphed it into Gary on Manufacturing to make it more general. That was more than 10 years ago. Must be time for another change.
That all is quite mature now.
Where do you think the offsetting new technologies or customer behavior will lead now? Or, is the market just going to begin to either consolidate further or split? What do you think?
by Gary Mintchell | Aug 15, 2024 | Commentary, News
I see Dr. Bob Kapheim several days a week at the community fitness center. He’s a professor in the science department at Judson University in suburban Chicago. A couple of weeks ago he told me his book had been published. The Lithium Rush Is On! Li. I ordered a copy from Bookshop.org and read it the last couple of days.
Why do we care about Lithium? Well, you can read the book, but in a word—batteries. You have Lithium Ion batteries all around you. Got a mobile phone? There’s one. I have an electric vehicle. There’s a big one.
Bob’s book is not long, but it is a comprehensive look at lithium. Where it resides in the ground. How it’s mined. Which countries stand to get a windfall in cash. What companies are mining.
If you have even the slightest curiosity about this metal important to our culture, check out the book. (My links are to Bookshop.org. They support local booksellers. The links are also not affiliate links where I would make a few dimes if you click.)
Doing my own due diligence, I asked ChatGPT for some of the latest on batteries. I received this.
Recent advancements in battery research are pushing the boundaries of energy storage and have the potential to significantly impact industries such as electric vehicles (EVs), consumer electronics, and even aviation.
1. **Solid-State Batteries**: Solid-state batteries are one of the most promising developments. These batteries use solid electrolytes instead of the liquid ones found in traditional lithium-ion batteries, which allows them to charge faster, last longer, and operate more safely. Recent innovations in this field include improvements in electrolyte composition and AI-driven material design, which could reduce costs and improve the performance of EVs. Companies like Volkswagen and Toyota are leading the charge, with commercial production expected by 2025.
2. **Cobalt-Free Batteries**: Researchers are also making strides in developing cobalt-free batteries. Cobalt, widely used in lithium-ion batteries, poses ethical and environmental challenges due to its scarcity and the conditions under which it is mined. MIT researchers have developed an organic battery that uses a material called TAQ, which could match the performance of traditional cobalt batteries while being more sustainable and cheaper to produce. This innovation could help reduce the reliance on cobalt in EV batteries.
3. **Anode-Free Sodium Batteries**: Another significant breakthrough comes from the development of anode-free sodium all-solid-state batteries. These batteries are not only less expensive but also faster to charge and more environmentally friendly than traditional lithium-ion batteries. This technology could open up new possibilities for large-scale energy storage, particularly in grid applications where cost and safety are paramount.
These advancements suggest a future where batteries are not only more efficient and powerful but also more sustainable, making them crucial for the transition to a greener economy.
by Gary Mintchell | Aug 13, 2024 | Commentary, News, Sustainability
I bought and EV about a year ago, so I have a special interest in what’s happening in the lithium and lithium battery markets. A guy who comes to our community fitness center almost as often as I do has written a book on lithium. More on that later.
Let’s combine an interest in lithium battery technology and manufacturing with a market analysis by the research firm I’ve found to have the best methodology, Interact Analysis. Research Associate Renee Ju has written about her latest report, “Li-ion Battery and Manufacturing Equipment”, that provides a deep analysis of the current battery recycling market.
Interact Analysis’ upcoming report “Li-ion Battery and Manufacturing Equipment” , and this insight explores some of the key themes in the report.
Manufacturers that establish recycling businesses come from across the battery industry chain, including upstream raw mineral and material suppliers, midstream battery manufacturers, vehicle OEMs and businesses specializing in battery recycling. In China, there are fewer large-scale companies that specialize in lithium battery recycling and currently companies with battery recycling plants tend to be manufacturers from elsewhere in the lithium battery industry chain. In contrast, in other major country markets the li-ion battery recycling market is dominated by large-scale recycling manufacturers that specialize in recycling businesses, such as Li-cycle. Other companies in the lithium battery industry chain predominantly participate in the battery recycling market through collaboration with recycling companies.
Aside from signing cooperative research agreements, cooperation on battery recycling among companies in the lithium battery industry chain usually takes the form of signing supply agreements. These can be divided into directional supply and establishing a closed-loop recycling ecosystem. Directional supply involves OEMs and battery manufacturers supplying scrap batteries or scrap materials to recycling companies, and recycling companies supplying recycled materials obtained from processing scrap batteries to raw material manufacturers.
In contrast, some companies collaborate with the aim of establishing a closed-loop recycling ecosystem. If we take the collaboration announced by GEM in February 2023 with Mercedes-Benz China, CATL, and Brunp as an example: Mercedes-Benz China’s retired waste batteries will be processed by GEM and Brunp, with the recycled key raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, and lithium supplied to CATL’s supply chain and used to produce new batteries for Mercedes-Benz. The cooperation in battery recycling between upstream and downstream companies in the lithium battery industry chain not only meets environmental protection requirements but also maximizes battery value and reduces battery production costs.
Some companies whose main operations are not directly related to batteries are also exploring the market for battery recycling, such as sanitation companies and other recycling enterprises (including those specializing in metal recycling and solid waste recycling). Typically, these companies run the battery recycling businesses through collaboration with lithium battery-related companies, with the recycling business supplying the products of their recycling plants to raw material manufacturers for further application in the lithium battery industry and for use in other industries. For example, the recycled nickel, cobalt, and tungsten powders can be utilized in the production of hard alloys, rather than being directly used in the production of lithium battery-related products.
With the rapid expansion of lithium battery capacity and the imminent wave of retired power batteries, recycling has become a safe, environmentally friendly, and economical way to dispose of scrap batteries and raw materials. As relevant policies and regulations are continuously improved and implemented by different countries, the battery recycling market is entering a new stage of professionalization and scale, with market opportunities continuously emerging. As a restructuring of the industry ecosystem takes place, optimizing resource allocation, strengthening technological research and development, accelerating upstream and downstream collaboration, and promoting the integration of the industrial chain may become the keys to success.
by Gary Mintchell | Jun 26, 2024 | Commentary, News
Mitsubishi has been collaborating, financing, and partnering busily over the past several months. I’m wondering about a future corporate strategy. This news concerns MVTec Software who develops machine vision software. It has announced inclusion of Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. in the MVTec Technology Partner Program. All models of the Mitsubishi Contact Image Sensors (CIS) use standard interfaces and are therefore directly compatible with MVTec’s software products. MVTec also provides an interface to Mitsubishi’s MELSEC PLCs. As part of this strategic partnership, these existing measures will now be consolidated under a unified framework to optimize collaboration and ensure the sustainable integration of Mitsubishi products into the MVTec portfolio.
by Gary Mintchell | Jun 24, 2024 | Commentary, News
Predictions are difficult—especially about the future.
I mostly discard all analyst predictions about the future of manufacturing markets. There are so many variables that cannot be foreseen. Supply chain, technologies, sudden bankruptcies. Of all I’ve seen, I like the modeling by Interact Analysis the best. The do extensive research.
They sent me a recent report by Jack Loughney, senior data analyst, who maintains the Manufacturing Industry Output Tracker (MIO).
His first conclusion, which fits neatly with my look at the major automation suppliers, calls the current outlook “challenging.”
The overall outlook for global manufacturing is challenging for this year, with many companies reporting a decline in orders and most regions expected to see a contraction. However, there are some positive signs on the horizon, particularly in the US, and many territories will end the year in a slightly better position than expected, according to results from our latest Manufacturing Industry Output (MIO) Tracker.
Recent research.
Now that we have greater visibility of how 2024 will pan out, in the wake of numerous industry trade shows and discussions with executives, we have revised our forecasts to reflect this. Our prediction for a soft 2024 for global manufacturing followed by a “strong-ish” recovery next year is mostly holding. The message we received from trade shows is that order books are shrinking, but we forecast an upturn in manufacturing activity towards the end of this year or into the beginning of 2025, leaving many territories in a better-than-expected position. However, until there is a recovery, it is difficult to judge how strong or sustained it will be.
Although we predict a recovery will take place during 2025, it is not immediately clear where this will come from and we have introduced a small downward revision in our projected growth for China in 2024 (from 2.8% in the previous edition to 2.4%). With China contributing almost half of the total manufacturing market’s value and currently propping-up overall growth at a global level, any revision or turbulence in the Chinese market will have a significant impact on the global outlook and could see a small contraction in the MIO compared with 2023.
There are still imponderables when it comes to how and when recovery in global manufacturing – and within the manufacturing machinery segment in particular – will take place. China is experiencing a series of economic challenges and when and how successfully it overcomes these will have a significant bearing on the global outlook. Global political unrest and elections such as the US Presidential Election in November will also have a bearing on outcomes for the manufacturing industry. However, all the signs point to there being a recovery in the not-too-distant future and a growing optimism about it happening in the first half of 2025. This is backed up by our discussions with industry professionals and attendance at international trade shows.
by Gary Mintchell | Jun 21, 2024 | Commentary, News
Market niches that open when incumbent companies grow large and mature leaving opportunities for startups hold interest for me. I’ve been watching for this situation for the past few years as the automation market matures with consolidating companies and slow market growth.
Marketing people for a company just exiting stealth contacted me. I just had an enjoyable conversation with CEO Andrew Baker about the opportunity the founders saw in the analog semiconductor market. There appear to be lucrative niches that are too small for the incumbent companies but can be profitable for a right-sized company. Hopefully, Orca Semiconductor will be that type of company in the right type of market.
Their first product is coming out quicker than comparative development in a large company. This is an advanced power management IC for health wearables, hearables, and other connected devices
Orca Semiconductor on June 20 emerged out of stealth mode as the first analog semiconductor provider to deliver the personalization and high-level support, demanded by customers, that “Big Analog” are neglecting. Founded by experienced analog IC solution innovators who have spent decades in the industry, Orca also announced it is sampling its first product, the OS1000, the most advanced PMIC (power management integrated circuit) in its class developed for health wearables, hearables and other connected devices.
“Companies developing vertical solutions are frustrated with the lack of customer support and customization available from ‘Big Analog’” said Andrew Baker, CEO of Orca. “We will address this gap head on. Orca will be nimble and adept at attacking and filling this void. We are committed to delivering industry leading customer service and customized analog products that will speed time to market for innovative smart health and smart factory solutions.”
I am not getting into the weeds of the specs. But if you are designing small electronic devices, check them out.
Targeted at wearable devices, health wearables, hearables and other connected devices, the OS1000 delivers the following features:
Li+ Battery Charge Management
- -5.5 to +20V charging power source protection
- Charge Safety: JEITA thermal monitoring and multiple safety timers
- User configurable Step Charge
- Power Path
Two Low Iq Buck Converters
- 300mA @ 0.5V to 3.0V
- Up to 4 voltage level DVS controlled thru I2C or fast GPIO
Two Low Dropout Linear Regulators
- Optional Load Switch mode
- 100mA @ 0.9V to 3.3V
System Support
- 2µA Iq with 2 buck converters operating (no load)
- 150nA Shelf-Mode
- Flexible regulator startup sequencing
- Power button support
- 4 GPIO with user assignable alternate modes
