- US seeing much lower negative growth than previously thought
- Chinese manufacturing output now predicted to surpass 2019 levels in 2020
- Semiconductor and textiles sectors on road to swift recovery; aerospace will continue to lag
- MIO Tracker dataset now features Argentina
There is manufacturing market research—and then there is manufacturing market research. I have had a few chances to talk with Interact Analysis’ CEO Adrian Lloyd and came away impressed with the way they do market research. This report has sat on my desktop for a couple of weeks. I needed to start catching up with all the cool information I’ve accumulated. Check it out. You can download the report (link below).
Interact Analysis has published its newly updated Manufacturing Industry Output (MIO) Tracker report – a comprehensive and highly-detailed report on the status of the global manufacturing sector. The latest update shows a notable upward revision to key manufacturing economies, with both China and the US being much less impacted than previously predicted. This quarter’s update report is available free to all here.
The research shows that the -10% contraction previously forecast for the US in 2020 has been reduced by more than half. This is largely due to the fact there have been no lockdowns, so while the virus has raged, manufacturing production has continued. China, whose government operated a stringent regime of virus-control, is now forecast to see a small amount of growth, of the order of 0.9% in 2020. Other Asian economies have fared better than expected, but the forecast for Europe remains roughly the same. As a result of these reassessments, the global forecast of negative growth for 2020 has been revised down from -7.8% (predicted in August) to -4.8%, and global manufacturing output is now predicted to surpass 2019 levels by 2022, rather than 2024. While radical, this reset is based on evidence collected on the ground by Interact Analysis’s team of experts.
Where specific manufacturing sectors are concerned, all except aerospace will return to 2019 levels by 2023, and most will burst through the barrier in 2022. Strong performance in APAC regions means the semiconductor industry is now forecast to surpass 2019 levels this year, rather than in 2021, and monthly indicators from Eurostat and the US point to a far swifter recovery in the textiles sector than previously forecast. While aerospace is predicted to struggle over the medium term, automotive, another major sector hard-hit by the pandemic, is now predicted to surpass 2019 levels by 2023, rather than 2024 as previously forecast. The post-COVID stimulus packages, provided by European governments, often supporting their push towards hybridisation or full electrification of vehicles, is a factor here.
Adrian Lloyd, CEO of Interact Analysis, says: “Is there light at the end of the tunnel as far as manufacturing is concerned? Interact Analysis’s updated MIO Tracker gives good reason to think so. For me, it is particularly interesting, yet at the same time in hindsight perhaps also unsurprising, to see that the US’s ultra-lax virus controls appear to have resulted in improved performance for manufacturing; surpassed only by the performance that has been delivered by China’s ultra-strict approach.
“I am also excited to announce to those of our clients doing business in the Latin America region that, as of this update, Interact Analysis’s Manufacturing Industry Output tracker now includes Argentina – the third largest economy in South America. Finally, as a leading industrial market research agency, we want to do our part to help the industrial sector get back on its feet. That’s why we’ve made this quarter’s update report from the MIO Tracker free to all and you can download it here. To speak to me directly about prospects for global manufacturing, please get in touch: [email protected].”
About the report
The Manufacturing Industry Output (MIO) Tracker offers the most complete and unified analysis of the manufacturing industry globally. It quantifies the total value of manufacturing production with deep granularity for over 35 industries and machinery sectors, across 39 regions; presenting 13-years of historical data alongside a credible five-year forecast. Country data from across the globe has been carefully organised around a common taxonomy to provide easy-to-interrogate, like-for-like comparisons. The historical data reveals the relationship between industry and machinery production for a complete business cycle, going back from pre-recession to the present day. Understanding these complex correlations, alongside current country and industry projections, provides a more accurate forecast by country, industry and machinery sector.
To learn more, visit: https://www.interactanalysis.com/download/mio-tracker-quarterly/
About Interact Analysis
Interact Analysis is an international provider of market research for the Intelligent Automation sector. Our team of experienced industry analysts delivers research into three core sectors: industrial automation, robotics and warehouse automation, and commercial vehicles. Intelligent Automation – which is the integration of artificial intelligence and automation – will change virtually every industry imaginable. This combination enables greater efficiencies, productivity, convenience, and scale. It has the potential to drastically alter the outlook for many traditional industries such as manufacturing, healthcare and automotive as well as to lead to the emergence of entirely new industries.