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I receive the Peter Diamandis Abundance newsletter. He’s an over-the-top optimist—but we need a dose of that in these pessimistic times. (In the “it’s a small world” category, a daughter of a couple who regularly attend a morning coffee group with me in Elgin, IL works for him.) He recently included a link to a “Metatrend Report” on humanoid robots.

Reports of robotic advances targeting human assistance have trickled my way and piqued my interest. This seems to me to be a great field for some of our best robotic engineering minds.

This is from Diamandis’s report.

I was compelled to create this Metatrend report because the coming wave of humanoid robots will have a vast impact on society that is widely underappreciated. It will transform our lives at home and work.

How Many?: In my conversations with Elon Musk, Brett Adcock, Cathie Wood, and Vinod Khosla, the predictions on how many humanoid robots we will have working alongside us by 2040 is shocking at best. At the lowest bound, the number is 1 billion (which is more than the number of automobiles on Earth) and at the upper bound, proclaimed by Musk and Adcock, the number will exceed 10 billion.

How Much?: But equally impressive as the sheer number of robots is the price point, predicted to be between $20,000 to $30,000 which translates to a leased cost on the order of $300 per month, for a robot helper working 24 hours per day, 7 days per week.

Why Now?: The first question to ask is why now? Why are we seeing such an explosion of activity in the humanoid robot field now? Beyond any single technical advancement, the convergence of 5 major technological areas are super-charging this field: multimodal generative AI, high-torque actuators, increased compute power, enhanced battery life, cameras and tactile sensors. 

This, in combination with AI voice recognition, is transformative: As Brett Adcock recently told me, “We can literally talk to our robot and it can implement the tasks you request — the end-state for this is you really want the default UI to be speech.”

Impact on Jobs: Naturally, the prospect of billions of humanoid robots raises questions about their impact on jobs and society. According to Adcock: “Our goal is to really be able to do a lot of the jobs that are not desirable by humans.” As of Q3 2024, there are nearly 8 million US job openings — jobs that people just don’t want to do.

Creating a Future of Abundance: As Musk has commented regarding a future involving humanoid robots: “This means a future of abundance, a future where there is no poverty, where people, you can have whatever you want, in terms of products and services. It really is a fundamental transformation of civilization as we know it.” Adcock echoes this vision, “You can basically create a world where goods and services prices are trending to zero in the limit and GDP spikes to infinity … You basically can request anything you would want and it would be relatively affordable for everybody in the world.”

Included in the introduction are 7 Key Takeaways:

1 Market Explosion: The humanoid robots market is poised for exponential growth, with projections ranging from $38 billion by 2035 (Goldman Sachs) to a staggering $24 trillion (Ark Invest). In the U.S. alone, at the lower-bound, Morgan Stanley estimates 63 million humanoid robots could be deployed by 2050, potentially affecting 75% of occupations and 40% of employees. On the upper bounds, Brett Adcock and Elon Musk predict as many as 1 billion to 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040.

2 Technological Convergence: The rapid advancement of humanoid robots is driven by converging breakthroughs in AI, hardware components (actuators, sensors), and battery technology. Multimodal generative AI in particular is enhancing robots’ adaptability and decision-making capabilities, while hardware costs are plummeting.

3 Labor Shortage Solution: Humanoid robots are emerging as a critical solution to global labor shortages, particularly in elderly care, manufacturing, and dangerous jobs. By 2030, the U.S. is projected to have a 25% “dependency ratio” of people over 70, driving demand for robotic assistance in healthcare and social care. In China and other parts of Asia and Europe, an aging population and lower birth rates make humanoid robotics critical for their economy.

4 Cost Reduction Trends: The cost of  humanoid robots is plummeting rapidly, with high-end models dropping from $250,000 to $150,000 in just one year: a 40% decrease compared to the expected 15-20% annual decline. Ambitious targets, such as Tesla’s goal of a $20,000 selling price for its Optimus robot, suggest mass adoption will become feasible across various sectors.

5 Investment Opportunities: The humanoid robot sector is attracting significant investment, exemplified by Figure AI’s recent $675 million funding round at a $2.6 billion valuation. Morgan Stanley’s “Humanoid 66” list provides a roadmap for investors interested in both robotics developers and potential beneficiaries across various industries.

6 Broad Societal Impact: The widespread adoption of humanoid robots has the potential to usher in an era of unprecedented abundance, dramatically reducing the cost of goods and services while freeing humans to focus on creative and fulfilling pursuits. This transformation could reshape our concept of work and fundamentally alter the structure of our economy and society.

7 Job Disruption: The speed at which multimodal generative AI and humanoid robot development is progressing, paired with the lack of public discourse on this subject, indicates that there will be significant job disruption and societal upheaval. Mechanisms to address these concerns such as universal basic income (UBI), will need to be addressed. Some have proposed funding such UBI programs by taxing companies which utilize “robots and AIs” to displace previously human-filled jobs.

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