I’m not a huge fan of market studies. My skepticism began at university in my first macro economics class. However, Interact Analysis’s methodology comes closest to winning me over than any others. Here are two recent reports from China-based market analyst Samantha Mou.
Growth Forecast for Machine Vision Market for 2025
- Machine Vision market declined by 3.9% in 2024
- Area Scan camera suffered largest decline
- Market set to recover in 2025, despite Trump’s tariffs
The global market for Machine Vision declined by 3.9% in 2024 as global industrial automation markets struggled due to challenging macro-economic growth, according to Interact Analysis. However, the market intelligence specialist forecasts a return to revenue growth from 2025, despite worldwide uncertainty caused by the introduction of US trade tariffs by the Trump administration.
A contributing factor to the overall decline of machine vision revenues was excess inventory, which customers and distributors worked through in 2024. This led to a decrease in purchases of new machine vision products over the year. Many end customers also performed badly in 2024, with the general slowdown in manufacturing having a significant impact on the worldwide machine vision market.
Despite the decline of the machine vision market and the uncertainty caused by US tariff announcements, Interact Analysis projects market growth of 1.5% over the year to reach $5.7 billion. The general outlook for manufacturing and machinery production is starting to strengthen, driving machine vision growth in 2025 and the market is projected to reach a value of only $7 billion by 2028 (slightly lower than previous forecasts).
Commenting on the latest Machine Vision report, Jonathan Sparkes, Research Analyst at Interact Analysis, says: “Looking ahead, the outlook for 2025 is proving to be much more subdued than previously expected, with additional uncertainty in the market coming through as a result of the threat of tariffs. However, into 2026 and beyond, our belief is the fundamentals for the industry remain strong and the expectation is for a return to levels of growth more inline with our previous projections.”
Global industrial robot shipments declined in 2024, recovery expected in 2025
The global shipment volume of industrial robots in 2024 totaled just over 505,000 units, reflecting a 2.4% decrease compared with 2023. This reduction in shipments, coupled with a decrease in average prices, resulted in a drop in sales revenue of -5.8% year-on-year.
A slowdown in investments in the manufacturing sector has been observed across all major regions. The Asia-Pacific region saw a relatively modest decline in robot shipments at -1.1%, while the Americas and EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) experienced sharper drops of -3.7% and -8.1%, respectively.
However, while 2024 closed on a challenging note, there are signs the market will stabilize. Positive trends in some regional markets during the first quarter of 2025 support the outlook for a gradual recovery.
All three major regions saw robot revenue decline in 2024, with modest growth expected in 2025
Manufacturing recovery signals industrial robot market stabilization
Since the second half of 2024, monthly indicators for the industrial sector in both the US and China have shown signs of recovery. Europe, while still trailing behind, has also begun to show improvement more recently. Although looming tariff uncertainties pose risks to machinery orders in the second half of 2025, current demand trends in major regions suggest these will not lead to a market-wide contraction.
According to the Japan Robot Association (JARA), orders for manipulators and robots rose 32.2% in Q1 2025, with export shipment value increasing by 22.8%. Japanese robot vendors, which accounted for 47% of global robot revenue in 2024 (according to the Interact Analysis Industrial Robot – 2025 report), are often seen as reliable indicators of broader market health.
In this context, global shipments of industrial robots are projected to grow by 5% in 2025. However, due to continued downward pressure on average prices, revenue growth is expected to be more modest, at just 2.6%.
With rising production volumes and intensifying competition, the average revenue per unit (ARPU) of industrial robots declined significantly – from around $31,100 in 2018 to $25,600 in 2024. While there was a temporary price surge in 2022 amid the global supply chain crisis, prices resumed their downward trend in 2023 as demand cooled and competition increased. In 2024, ARPU fell more sharply than in previous years, dropping by -3.6% due to easing inflation and growing competition.
Fierce price competition has taken a toll on manufacturer margins, particularly among non-collaborative robot suppliers, where pricing flexibility has hit its limits. Many emerging brands have aggressively pursued market share at the expense of profitability. This has led to expectations that the pace of price erosion will slow in 2025, with ARPU declining at a more moderate rate of 1%-2% annually through to 2029.
Still, certain product segments may help support pricing. Rising shipments of large-payload collaborative robots and SCARA robots could help stabilize ARPU moving forward.
Collaborative robots (cobots) have experienced the steepest declines in ARPU, largely due to the rise of low-cost, pure-play vendors. In 2023 and 2024, cobot ARPU declined by -6.4% and -4.1%, respectively, with a further -3.5% drop expected in 2025. The influx of these budget-oriented players has shifted the competitive landscape and accelerated price-based competition within the segment.
The global industrial robot ARPU forecast has been reduced further compared to previous projections
The industrial robot market has consolidated over the past few years, with the “Big 4” industrial robot manufacturers – FANUC, Yaskawa, ABB, and KUKA – having long maintained a dominant position. However, 2024 marked a shift toward increased market fragmentation. The top 10 vendors saw their combined market share fall from 64.6% in 2023 to 62.3% in 2024, indicating meaningful inroads are being made by smaller and emerging players, challenging the established manufacturers amid slowing demand and increasing price pressures.
Several factors contributed to this fragmentation:
- Many pure-play and emerging collaborative robot manufacturers successfully transitioned from niche pilots to scalable, general-purpose solutions, driving substantial revenue growth.
- The automotive industry, a traditional stronghold for leading suppliers, saw sluggish demand for robots, disproportionately affecting the Big 4.
- In China, aggressive price competition deterred major international vendors from participating in low-margin tenders, whereas domestic suppliers remained highly competitive.
In summary, 2024 was a year of contraction and strategic realignment in the industrial robot industry. Slowing shipments, declining prices, and intensifying competition challenged both revenue and profitability. However, regional signs of recovery, particularly in Asia and the US, and strong order books from major players like Japanese vendors point toward a likely rebound in 2025.
The industrial robot market is undergoing a critical transition. While 2024 reflected short-term headwinds, the structural trends – automation demand, labor shortages, and advances in robotics technologies – remain firmly in place. The ongoing fragmentation of the supplier base and evolution of pricing dynamics are redefining the competitive landscape, particularly in cost-sensitive segments like collaborative robots.
Looking ahead, we continue to view the market with cautious optimism. As investment cycles pick up and demand stabilizes across key industries, 2025 could mark the beginning of a new growth phase, albeit one characterized by tighter margins and more nuanced competition. Robot manufacturers will need to balance innovation, efficiency, and market agility to thrive in this next chapter.
To learn more, get in touch with Samantha Mou directly: [email protected].
