by Gary Mintchell | Jan 21, 2025 | Robots, Technology, Workforce
I receive the Peter Diamandis Abundance newsletter. He’s an over-the-top optimist—but we need a dose of that in these pessimistic times. (In the “it’s a small world” category, a daughter of a couple who regularly attend a morning coffee group with me in Elgin, IL works for him.) He recently included a link to a “Metatrend Report” on humanoid robots.
Reports of robotic advances targeting human assistance have trickled my way and piqued my interest. This seems to me to be a great field for some of our best robotic engineering minds.
This is from Diamandis’s report.
I was compelled to create this Metatrend report because the coming wave of humanoid robots will have a vast impact on society that is widely underappreciated. It will transform our lives at home and work.
How Many?: In my conversations with Elon Musk, Brett Adcock, Cathie Wood, and Vinod Khosla, the predictions on how many humanoid robots we will have working alongside us by 2040 is shocking at best. At the lowest bound, the number is 1 billion (which is more than the number of automobiles on Earth) and at the upper bound, proclaimed by Musk and Adcock, the number will exceed 10 billion.
How Much?: But equally impressive as the sheer number of robots is the price point, predicted to be between $20,000 to $30,000 which translates to a leased cost on the order of $300 per month, for a robot helper working 24 hours per day, 7 days per week.
Why Now?: The first question to ask is why now? Why are we seeing such an explosion of activity in the humanoid robot field now? Beyond any single technical advancement, the convergence of 5 major technological areas are super-charging this field: multimodal generative AI, high-torque actuators, increased compute power, enhanced battery life, cameras and tactile sensors.
This, in combination with AI voice recognition, is transformative: As Brett Adcock recently told me, “We can literally talk to our robot and it can implement the tasks you request — the end-state for this is you really want the default UI to be speech.”
Impact on Jobs: Naturally, the prospect of billions of humanoid robots raises questions about their impact on jobs and society. According to Adcock: “Our goal is to really be able to do a lot of the jobs that are not desirable by humans.” As of Q3 2024, there are nearly 8 million US job openings — jobs that people just don’t want to do.
Creating a Future of Abundance: As Musk has commented regarding a future involving humanoid robots: “This means a future of abundance, a future where there is no poverty, where people, you can have whatever you want, in terms of products and services. It really is a fundamental transformation of civilization as we know it.” Adcock echoes this vision, “You can basically create a world where goods and services prices are trending to zero in the limit and GDP spikes to infinity … You basically can request anything you would want and it would be relatively affordable for everybody in the world.”
Included in the introduction are 7 Key Takeaways:
1 Market Explosion: The humanoid robots market is poised for exponential growth, with projections ranging from $38 billion by 2035 (Goldman Sachs) to a staggering $24 trillion (Ark Invest). In the U.S. alone, at the lower-bound, Morgan Stanley estimates 63 million humanoid robots could be deployed by 2050, potentially affecting 75% of occupations and 40% of employees. On the upper bounds, Brett Adcock and Elon Musk predict as many as 1 billion to 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040.
2 Technological Convergence: The rapid advancement of humanoid robots is driven by converging breakthroughs in AI, hardware components (actuators, sensors), and battery technology. Multimodal generative AI in particular is enhancing robots’ adaptability and decision-making capabilities, while hardware costs are plummeting.
3 Labor Shortage Solution: Humanoid robots are emerging as a critical solution to global labor shortages, particularly in elderly care, manufacturing, and dangerous jobs. By 2030, the U.S. is projected to have a 25% “dependency ratio” of people over 70, driving demand for robotic assistance in healthcare and social care. In China and other parts of Asia and Europe, an aging population and lower birth rates make humanoid robotics critical for their economy.
4 Cost Reduction Trends: The cost of humanoid robots is plummeting rapidly, with high-end models dropping from $250,000 to $150,000 in just one year: a 40% decrease compared to the expected 15-20% annual decline. Ambitious targets, such as Tesla’s goal of a $20,000 selling price for its Optimus robot, suggest mass adoption will become feasible across various sectors.
5 Investment Opportunities: The humanoid robot sector is attracting significant investment, exemplified by Figure AI’s recent $675 million funding round at a $2.6 billion valuation. Morgan Stanley’s “Humanoid 66” list provides a roadmap for investors interested in both robotics developers and potential beneficiaries across various industries.
6 Broad Societal Impact: The widespread adoption of humanoid robots has the potential to usher in an era of unprecedented abundance, dramatically reducing the cost of goods and services while freeing humans to focus on creative and fulfilling pursuits. This transformation could reshape our concept of work and fundamentally alter the structure of our economy and society.
7 Job Disruption: The speed at which multimodal generative AI and humanoid robot development is progressing, paired with the lack of public discourse on this subject, indicates that there will be significant job disruption and societal upheaval. Mechanisms to address these concerns such as universal basic income (UBI), will need to be addressed. Some have proposed funding such UBI programs by taxing companies which utilize “robots and AIs” to displace previously human-filled jobs.
by Gary Mintchell | Dec 3, 2024 | Operations Management, Software, Workforce
Anthony Murphy, Vice President and Head of Product Management at Plex, a Rockwell Automation Company, met with me for a bit at the recent Automation Fair. I had toured the show floor captivated by the demo of the connected factory worker. I’ve followed the workflow technology for many years. Companies keep improving both the technology and the utility.
Murphy explained that Plex has a design philosophy of building a platform then constructing apps on top.
We’ve written about the “coming” worker shortage for more than 20 years. The fat is evidently finally in the fire. I know that my neighbor in suburban Chicago, by means of example, cannot find workers for his sheet metal fabricating company. Often when someone is hired they show up for a day without returning. This story repeats often.
The connected worker solution provides digital tools to retain, attract, and reskill workers. It empowers them with real-time guidance, visual aids, and multimedia content, enhancing comprehension and reducing errors on the job. By streamlining the number of applications manufacturers need, the solution also reduces total cost of ownership, time to value, and cybersecurity risk.
The connected worker offerings provide the following benefits:
- Recruiting and retaining a connected workforce: The new capabilities provide digital tools and real-time information to enhance worker productivity and engagement.
- Addressing the talent gap: Through these offerings, Plex helps manufacturers empower their workers with advanced training and tools to stay competitive in the evolving workforce landscape.
- Knowledge retention and transfer: As a large amount of the current workforce in manufacturing retires, safeguarding industry expertise is critical to ensure smooth knowledge transition to the next generation. The capabilities create and capture the corpus of manufacturing knowledge in an organic way.
- Guided and Interactive Work Instructions, providing step-by-step task guidance for people, machines, and devices.
- Interactive Work Instructions—developed in partnership with Canvas GFX and currently available—enables users to author and work with model-based 3D and 2D multimedia formats within a single document to drive better understanding of the work at hand.
by Gary Mintchell | Sep 30, 2024 | Workforce
The Human Factors and Ergonomics Society features research into such things as how humans focus on displays and controls, how humans work to lift, reach, and twist in various occupations. The Society has been mostly academic, but Susan Kotowski, outgoing President, has led an initiative to reach out to practitioners fostering joint collaboration into research.
The sessions I attended explained research using video-based experiments evaluating tools such as exoskeletons that might alleviate any of a variety of work-related injuries.
I thought maybe I would meet engineering grad students, but Kotowski told me members of the Society hold a variety of titles and jobs, usability, goal, jobs, tasks, processes, fit to person using them, designing to people, span every industry, cognitive and physical.
The conference was dubbed ASPIRE, which is both an appropriate word and a letterism standing for Advancing Systems and Practices through Innovation, Research, Education.
I mostly attended sessions in the Occupational Ergonomics track. Some of the research focused on hands—the best way to grip, move, assemble tools and parts. Other research focused on exoskeletons. The goal is to reduce muscular/skeleton injuries and repetitive lifting injuries.
Much of the research turns out to not be practical. Seeking more collaboration with industry will help focus research into more useful channels.
Talking with researchers in the hall, I was told that exoskeletons have so far been oversold. They are OK for straight lifting, but if the subject is also given a cognitive task problems ensue. Further, any movements other than straight, say requiring twisting or turning, are not viable.
by Gary Mintchell | Aug 9, 2024 | Automation, Robots, Workforce
Another article just appeared on my news feed—Will Robots Take My Job?
OK, that’s just click bait. People searching for something to touch a fear emotion have written these articles for probably 40 years. I first worked with robotics in the 1980s. Writers tripped over themselves to write doom articles either about Japan having so many more robots than America or about how robots will take all the jobs.
Consider another look at the situation.
1. Robots took the place of humans in many applications that were backbreaking, monotonous, dangerous (welding, painting, press loading).
2. Jobs requiring continuous precision at process speeds and consistency impossible for humans to match.
3. Other quality and inspection tasks difficult for humans to perform minute-by-minute without blinking or mind-drifting.
4. Demographics—women are having fewer babies world wide with a recent survey in the US revealing many women of child-bearing years don’t even want a child. Fewer people to work, more need for automation.
5. Collaborative robotic technologies have enabled robots to work with humans performing complex tasks.
By the way, it’s the same with artificial intelligence (AI). First comes a glimmer of the new technology. Then doom-and-gloom pundits start writing about all the negative effects on people. Then we learn to work with the technologies in order to do better jobs more effectively.
by Gary Mintchell | Aug 7, 2024 | Asset Performance Management, Operations Management, Workforce
Tools for connecting workers with each other and with processes empower faster and better decision making crucial with reduced workforces. This partnership between Fluke Reliability and Augmentir pushes the meme forward.
- Augmentir’s connected worker solution helps to digitize frontline operations and increase worker productivity.
- This aligns with Fluke Reliability’s commitment to provide workers with enhanced decision-making capabilities across their enterprise asset management operations.
- Both vendors provide AI-powered technology that empowers workers on the plant floor with solutions to simplify their jobs and enhance overall efficiency.
Fluke Reliability has entered into a formal partnership agreement with Augmentir to integrate their connected worker platform with Fluke Reliability’s AI-powered enterprise asset management solution to increase productivity, enhance employee experiences and improve Maintenance, Repair and Operations (MRO) for industrial customers.
Augmentir is a leading connected worker solution, providing a suite of AI-powered connected worker tools that help industrial companies deliver effective skills management, training and collaborative digital workflows, by digitizing and optimizing frontline work processes.
Fluke Reliability enables customers to adopt a connected approach to their reliability strategies, bringing together hardware, AI-powered software, services and their eMaint platform within one workflow. The solution helps customers shift from reactive to predictive maintenance strategies, assessing the health of their assets and utilizing their AI diagnostic engine, which means customers can predict faults up to six months in advance.
Augmentir has been added to Fluke Reliability’s Industry and Technology Partner Program, which is designed to enable customers to better integrate and automate connected reliability workflows for improved operations. This move underpins the commitment from both companies to help customers shift to more digital manufacturing operations; empowering them with decision-making capabilities that accelerate efficiency across global operations.
by Gary Mintchell | Jul 29, 2024 | Manufacturing IT, Operations Management, Software, Workforce
Writer and computer science professor Cal Newport writes in his new book Slow Productivity about a condition we probably all have found ourselves mired in—pseudoproductivity. When I was younger we called it “busy work.” That is work designed to make us appear busy even while accomplishing almost nothing.
I began doing promotional work for a company called Quickbase this year. This company was completely new to me. They develop software for manufacturing and construction industries—ERP, Project Management, MES, and the like. Their competitive differential is no code. When you purchase their solutions you don’t need a few consultants and huge computer system.
They have defined an enemy to productivity they call “gray work.” Their solution is designed to render gray work moot.
Recently, Quickbase surveyed 2,000 workers in the United States and United Kingdom on the state of work and productivity. 54% of respondents reported that it’s harder than ever to be productive day-to-day.
58% of respondents said they spend less than 20 hours per week on meaningful work—the truly important stuff that that drives actual results. And 45% of respondents say they are spending 11+ hours per week doing nothing but chasing information from different people across multiple systems.
And despite our best technological innovations and intentions, more tools do not necessarily make things better—an immense nine out of 10 respondents report feeling overwhelmed to some degree by the sheer amount of software solutions they use daily—the very solutions that are supposed to increase productivity.
Now overlay this with the fact that 66% of respondents report that their organizations are actively increasing investments in software designed to theoretically enhance productivity, work management, and collaboration, and it adds up to a productivity gap that is growing every day. What can we do about it? You’re about to find out.
You can download the report at this link. It is worthwhile reading. And thinking about. And figuring out how to implement solutions that eliminate (or minimize) gray work or pseudoproductivity.
