by Gary Mintchell | Jan 7, 2016 | Commentary, News
Just in from PwC–results of its latest manufacturers survey. And it sort of fits with this week’s stock market news–not all that optimistic right now.
Sentiment regarding the direction of the domestic economy moderated further among U.S. industrial manufacturers, according to the Q4 2015 Manufacturing Barometer, released by PwC US today. A number of factors ranging from concerns about the global economy, particularly China, to the impact of the strong dollar and weak energy prices, have prompted manufacturers to reign in growth forecasts, while taking a more measured approach to hiring and capital spending outlays.
During the fourth quarter of 2015, optimism regarding the direction of the domestic economy over the next 12 months dropped to 46 percent from the prior quarter’s 60 percent, and 22 points below a year ago (68 percent). This represented the lowest level of optimism since 37 percent was recorded in the third quarter of 2012. Looking at the world stage, only 27 percent of industrial manufacturers expressed optimism regarding the global economy over the next 12 months, 11 points below a year ago (38 percent).
As a result of the decreased economic sentiment, the projected average revenue growth rate over the next 12 months among panelists declined to 3.6 percent, representing a significant deceleration from the prior quarter’s 5.3 percent. The benchmark represented the lowest revenue growth rate since three percent was recorded in the first quarter of 2011. Despite the lower rate, 70 percent of panelists still expect positive revenue growth for their own companies in the year ahead, with the majority (65 percent) forecasting single-digit growth.
“Sentiment among U.S. industrial manufacturers decelerated in the fourth quarter, primarily reflecting the uncertain outlook for the global environment,” said Bobby Bono, PwC’s U.S. industrial manufacturing leader. “The overall economic picture has become more complex as management teams navigate slower growth in China, coupled with a stronger dollar and weak energy prices. Nearly one-third of annual revenue among survey panelists is derived internationally, reflecting the significant exposure of domestic industrial manufacturers to the world economy. Turning more cautious, they are prudently dialing back on the overall level of capital spending and hiring as they prepare to transition to a more challenging business climate. However, a healthy majority still anticipate revenue growth, albeit at a more moderate pace, in the year ahead.”
Barriers to Growth and Challenges
Looking at perceived barriers to growth, monetary exchange rate has become the leading headwind over the next 12 months, up 11 points sequentially to 49 percent in the fourth quarter. A year ago, it was 15 percent, 34 points lower. Other barriers included lack of demand (39 percent), oil/energy prices (32 percent), decreasing profitability (29 percent) and legislative/regulatory pressure (22 percent). In addition, competition from foreign markets rose to 22 percent, up 10 points from the previous quarter.
PwC also surveyed respondents on the most prominent challenges in preparing for the year ahead. At the top of the list was the condition of the world economy, which was cited by 80 percent of respondents, while 67 percent rated it as a top-three issue. This was significantly higher than the last time this special survey was conducted in 2011. At that time, only 64 percent cited the condition of the world economy and only 18 percent listed this challenge among the top-three. Conversely, 71 percent of panelists flagged higher costs of goods and services as a major challenge, down from 92 percent in 2011. Additional major challenges cited by panelists included greater opportunities for new product and service introductions (67 percent), increased price flexibility (62 percent) and strength of the US dollar (53 percent).
Hiring
As a result of the pullback in growth forecasts, manufacturers have continued to take a more conservative approach to hiring. In total, 42 percent plan to add employees to their workforce over the next 12 months, up from the low of 37 percent in the third-quarter of 2015, but down from 60 percent reported a year ago. The total net workforce growth projection was flat this quarter, below last year’s 1.1 percent, indicating continued cutbacks in hiring among these manufacturing firms.
Among the 42 percent of panelists planning to hire within the next 12 months, the most sought-after employees will be blue collar/skilled labor (29 percent) and professionals/technicians (27 percent). Among professionals/technicians, hiring of technology/engineering employees led the way, while hiring in the blue collar category was split between skilled/specialized workers and semi-skilled workers.
“Industrial manufacturers are continuing to seek avenues to improve productivity, while favoring professionals with strong technical skills,” Bono added. “In a slower growth environment, management teams appreciate the benefits of staying lean while ensuring they have the right talent to harness continued advances in engineering, technology and supply chain management.”
Spending
The tempered global outlook has also served to moderate the total level of capital spending plans among U.S. industrial manufacturers. They are continuing to spend, but they are spending less. Overall, 49 percent plan major new investments of capital during the next 12 months, up from the prior quarter’s 37 percent, and above last year’s 43 percent. However, the mean investment as a percentage of total sales dropped to 1.9 percent, sharply down from last quarter’s 5.6 percent and the 3.3 percent a year ago.
Conversely, 86 percent of respondents plan to increase operational spending over the next 12 months, up four points from both the previous quarter and the comparable period last year. Leading categories were new product or service introductions (44 percent), research and development (41 percent), business acquisitions (34 percent) and information technology (36 percent). “Given the prospects for a less robust economic climate, management teams continue to focus on investing in what they do best, while fostering innovation in an effort to strengthen their competitive positions,” Bono added.
by Gary Mintchell | Oct 19, 2015 | News
Many years ago I read a book about the stock market. It poked fun at the news reports that would go—there is a wave of selling. Hmm, for every seller there is a buyer. Someone bought all the shares being sold.
I bring that up just as a note about economics (and maybe life in general). Some things are good and bad simultaneously.
Take the strength of the dollar. American nationalists think that a strong dollar means a strong nation, or that we “won” some contest. However, for manufacturers and other suppliers looking to sell overseas a strong dollar makes our products more expensive and therefore less competitive.
The latest PwC US Manufacturing Barometer just came my way. It states, “Sentiment regarding the direction of the global economy took a sharp turn downward among U.S. industrial manufacturers, according to the Q3 2015 Manufacturing Barometer, released by PwC US today. Global concerns also served to moderate optimism regarding the domestic outlook, while slowing plans to hire more workers. At the same time, capital and operational spending forecasts among U.S. companies remained healthy.”
Details:
During the third quarter of 2015, optimism regarding the direction of the global economy dropped to 23 percent from 38 percent in the previous quarter and 30 percent in the third quarter of 2014. In addition, pessimism rose to an equal level with optimism (23 percent), reflecting an uncertain outlook for international commerce. Further, 40 percent of respondents indicated they believed the world economy was declining, showing greater concern than in the previous quarter (25% in Q2).
Conversely, optimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook remained positive but dropped to 60 percent in the third quarter of 2015 from 69 percent in the second quarter. Despite the renewed sense of caution regarding the global stage, company revenue forecasts for the next 12 months rose to a moderately high 5.3 percent in the third quarter, compared to a forecast of 4.9 percent in the second quarter.
“U.S. industrial manufacturers became increasingly cautious on the outlook for the global environment as they assessed the impact of the slowdown in China and the strengthening dollar,” said Bobby Bono, PwC’s U.S. industrial manufacturing leader. “Despite the downward turn in overseas sentiment, overall domestic growth prospects remained healthy and manufacturers continue to focus on further strengthening core products and services. They are keeping their cash at home and directing investment toward enhancing their value propositions in an effort to remain competitive and drive future revenues.”
As a result of the decline in global sentiment, U.S. industrial manufacturers scaled back hiring plans in the third quarter, with only 37 percent planning to add employees to their workforce over the next 12 months, down 15 points from the 52 percent level indicated in both the second-quarter and year ago comparable period. The total net workforce growth projection in the third quarter was minus 0.2 percent, indicating further cutbacks in hiring among industrial manufacturing firms.
Among the minority of panelists planning to hire within the next 12 months, the most sought-after employees will be blue collar/skilled labor (23 percent) and professionals/technicians (25 percent). Limited white collar support, middle management and sales/marketing hiring is planned. “The drop in hiring plans may indicate an expectation for slower growth in the near future,” Bono added. “Management teams will likely intensify avenues to improve productivity across their organizations, while continuing to search for professionals with strong technical skills.”
Despite the tempered global outlook, 37 percent of U.S. industrial manufacturers surveyed plan major new investments of capital during the next 12 months, up slightly from the second quarter and same period last year. In addition, the mean investment as a percentage of total sales was a moderately high 5.6 percent, well above 3.3 percent in the second quarter and on par with 5.7 percent in last year’s third quarter. Operational spending plans remained healthy as well with 82 percent indicating plans to increase operational spending, up from 75 percent in the second quarter and 69 percent last year. Leading increased expenditures were new product or service introductions (48 percent), research and development (37 percent), business acquisitions (23 percent) and information technology (22 percent).
“In the face of global uncertainty and the impact of a strengthening U.S. currency, management teams continue to focus investment on developing new products and driving innovation in an effort to sustain and build market share,” Bono added. “Companies are doubling down on what they do best and aggressively building their competitive moats. At the same time, they are continuing to pull back from overseas expansion, with only five percent indicating plans to open facilities abroad.”
Looking at perceived barriers to entry, monetary exchange rate became the leading headwind to growth over the next 12 months, as indicated by 38 percent of respondents. A year ago, it was only 14 percent (24 points lower). Typical barriers to growth—lack of demand (32 percent) and legislative/regulatory pressures (25 percent)—were lower as monetary exchange rate took center stage.
PwC also surveyed respondents on investment in information technology, and found that 80 percent of manufacturers report having a multiyear plan (3-5 years) that addresses business capabilities and processes as well as IT systems. Industrial manufacturing companies’ IT investments are made primarily to reduce costs (84 percent) and support growth (72 percent). Overall, 90 percent are planning to invest in IT technologies over the next 12-18 months, with upgrading infrastructure the leader at 82 percent.
About the Manufacturing Barometer
PwC’s Manufacturing Barometer is a quarterly survey based on interviews with 60 senior executives of large, multinational U.S. industrial manufacturing companies about their current business performance, the state of the economy and their expectations for growth over the next 12 months. This survey summarizes the results for Q3 2015 and was conducted from June 24, 2015 to September 28, 2015.
by Gary Mintchell | Aug 20, 2015 | Commentary, News
Today’s news stream brought to my iPad an item about disappointing results from an auction for Gulf of Mexico oil leases. The oil industry is in the doldrums with $50 per barrel oil. That affects technology companies who supply to the industry. We’ve seen that result in stock prices of those companies.
While considering that economic fact, this survey from PwC US came my way. Optimism regarding the direction of the domestic economy softened in the second quarter of 2015 compared to the previous nine-year high recorded in the first quarter among U.S. industrial manufacturers, according to the Q2 2015 Manufacturing Barometer, released by PwC US.
Respondents also trimmed overall growth forecasts and spending plans, reflecting caution around the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and potential rise in domestic interest rates, as well as continued uncertainty regarding the direction of global economy.
Optimism regarding the prospects of the U.S. economy during the next 12 months decreased to a still healthy 69 percent among manufacturers in the second quarter of 2015, compared to 76 percent in the first quarter, but up from 65 percent in the second quarter of 2014. Optimism about the world economy declined to 38 percent, compared to 42 percent in the previous quarter. Reflecting the reduced sentiment, projected company revenue growth for the next 12 months slowed to 4.9 percent in the second quarter, compared to 5.1 percent in the previous quarter.
“As a result of several macro-economic factors taking shape, U.S. industrial manufacturers seem to be taking a more measured view of business conditions in the year ahead,” said Bobby Bono, U.S. industrial manufacturing leader, for PwC. “Slower GDP growth, the impact of the strong dollar, issues in China and uncertainty in Europe are among the developments that are likely causing industrial manufacturers to reassess the broader economic picture, as well as spending plans across a range of categories. Still, the overall outlook for U.S. industrial manufacturers appears to be positive, marked by relatively high levels of optimism regarding both the domestic economy and company revenue growth forecasts.”
Operational Spending
Reflecting the more cautious outlook, operational spending plans dropped to 75 percent, down from a two year high of 83 percent in the first quarter. Looking at sequential changes among the top spending categories, plans for new products or service introductions dropped to 44 percent from 55 percent, while research and development decreased to 34 percent from 40 percent and information technology decreased to 22 percent from 33 percent during the first quarter. “While these spending decreases are notable, we believe they reflect more of a pause in sentiment, as management teams evaluate strategies to adjust to evolving market conditions, including the possibility of Federal Reserve action later this year” Bono added.
Capital Spending
According to the survey, sentiment regarding capital spending also trailed off with only 34 percent of respondents indicating plans for major new investments of capital in the year ahead, down from 52 percent in the first quarter. Following the recent trend, plans for M&A moderated during the second quarter as well, with 29 percent of respondents indicating an interest, compared to 43 percent in the first quarter and 38 percent in the second quarter of last year.
Headwinds to Growth
Looking at perceived headwinds, survey respondents identified lack of demand, legislative/regulatory pressures and monetary exchange rate as the top perceived barriers to growth in the year ahead. Concern about monetary exchange rate showed the biggest gain, rising to 37 percent of respondents, up from 21 percent in the first quarter. In addition, lack of demand rose to 39 percent, up ten points sequentially, while legislative/regulatory pressure jumped to 39 percent as well, up from 33 percent in the first quarter.
Of interest, the perceived barrier of lack of qualified workers dropped to 24 percent in the second quarter from 35 percent in the first quarter, representing the lowest level in six quarters. The reduced anxiety regarding identifying qualified workers dovetailed with a flat (52 percent) indication sequentially regarding plans to hire more workers in the year ahead. “It’s too early to tell,” Bono added. “But, the softer outlook might be reducing some of the near-term pressure on management teams to add more workers, though the shortage in skilled workers, or the talent gap, remains a long-term challenge across the sector.”
Global Expansion
With regard to global expansion, only 12 percent of manufacturers plan to expand to new markets abroad, and nine percent plan for new facilities abroad, both continuing a trend of reduced overseas expansion seen in recent quarters. Along similar lines, among respondents with international operations, the projected contribution from international sales to total revenue over the next 12 months remained in line with the first quarter at 27 percent, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2006.
Impact of Strong Dollar
PwC’s survey also included a section on the stronger U.S. dollar, which found that 82 percent of respondents expect an impact on revenues, average 3.5 percent, in the year ahead. In view of the stronger dollar, panelists believe reform of U.S. corporate taxes might be helpful (53 percent very/extremely helpful) to their own companies’ bottom line over the next 12-18 months. Three other U.S. government actions were also cited as potentially helpful: more sensible U.S. regulations, including financial regulations (49 percent); repatriation of U.S. companies’ international profits at low tax rates, less than 10% (39 percent); and international trade treaties with Asia: China, India, Japan (33 percent). In addition, a majority of panelists believe the stronger dollar may lead to new or strengthened strategic alliances (47 percent) or new or strengthened joint ventures (31 percent) over the next 12-18 months.
by Gary Mintchell | Feb 24, 2015 | Automation, Internet of Things, Networking, Operations Management, Technology
Are you sick of hearing about the Internet of Things, yet? I hope not. That’s the big topic in industrial/manufacturing circles these days, and I doubt that it fades soon.
I think there is a paradox going down here, though. In many respects we already have connected plants. Automation has been so well accepted, that it would be hard to find a facility either manufacturing or production that has no automation. And automation requires instrumentation, networking, and data analysis.
Even considering IP–as in Internet Protocol–as a core of Internet of Things, the adoption of Ethernet-based networks such as EtherNet/IP and Profinet continues to grow significantly.
One wonders, then, what manufacturing executives think of the whole idea and where adoption ranks in their priorities.
Robert McCutcheon, Partner with PwC and US Industrial Products Leader, led a study with PwC and The Manufacturing Institute. The facts and conclusions are included in The Internet of Things: what it means for US manufacturing.
McCutcheon followed up with a blog post where he summarized the findings.
Setting the table for the discussion, he notes, “According to one estimate, the installed base for Internet-connected devices already exceeded $14 billion by early 2015, and is forecast to boom to nearly $50 billion by 2020. We are living in an era of deep data inter-connectivity.”
Further, he says, “Connected devices and new data flows are already making impressive headway in the manufacturing sector, and we expect to see this trend accelerate. In fact, another estimate shows that over the next decade, manufacturers could stand to capture about $4 trillion of value from the IoT through increased revenues and lower costs.”
With this potential value potential, what are executives thinking? Here is his summary.
“This is what we learned:
- Smart sensors are gaining traction – nearly 40% of U.S. manufacturers are collecting and using data generated by smart sensors to enhance their manufacturing and operating processes
- Not all think IoT strategy is critical — about 30% say that it’s “slightly important” or “not important at all” to adopt IoT strategy in their operations
- Focus is on manufacturing plants — one in three manufacturers use data-driven technology in the manufacturing plant only, with about one in four deploying it in their plant and warehouse”
The idea is data-driven manufacturing. Many are competing to find the killer app for this.
The idea is data-driven manufacturing. Many are competing to find the killer app for this. Industrie 4.0 advocates describe a digital factory that mirrors the physical factory where engineers and executives can fine tune the process from design to ship. Smart Manufacturing envisions a platform where apps can be built upon which will provide benefits of enhanced workflow.
Even Lean (which is seldom discussed lately, but remains the best route to manufacturing effectiveness) needs data to both discover problem areas and provide feedback about the success of the project.
Where do you stand on the IoT spectrum?
by Gary Mintchell | Feb 20, 2015 | Commentary, News
This m&a activity was reflected in my own practice. There was much activity in divestiture on some company’s parts which means acquisition for other companies. It was an active year. Following is a report from PwC US. Interesting reading throughout–as much about workforce issues as companies restructuring.
Following a strong fourth quarter, the industrial manufacturing industry closed out a stellar year for merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, according to Assembling Value, a quarterly analysis of global deal activity in the industrial manufacturing industry by PwC US.
Total deal value (for transactions worth more than $50 million) soared in 2014, reaching $127 billion, an increase of 163 percent over the prior year and surpassing the 10-year high of $92.4 set in 2006. There were 213 industrial manufacturing deals (worth more than $50 million) recorded in 2014 for a total of $127 billion compared to 148 deals worth $48.3 billion in 2013.
Both deal value and volume spiked drastically in the fourth quarter of 2014, recording 56 deals worth $24.1 billion compared to 38 deals totaling $9.6 billion in the same period the previous year. Megadeals worth more than $1 billion were also in abundance in 2014 with 24 announced transactions worth $91.6 billion.
“The strong momentum for manufacturing deals in 2014 carried into the fourth quarter as horizontal consolidation and divestitures of non-core business continued to drive robust activity,” said Bobby Bono, U.S. industrial manufacturing leader for PwC. “Companies are monetizing non-core or underperforming assets, leveraging scale in core businesses and considering joint ventures and new strategic alliances to expand into long-term attractive markets, particularly in developing economies with a growing middle class. In addition, management’s attention has shifted away from headcount reduction and cost-cutting programs toward growth initiatives and filling the talent gaps.”
Manufacturers continue to struggle to find and retain talented workforce and a skilled labor portfolio is becoming a more important factor in evaluating potential M&A targets. Sixty-four percent of respondents to PwC’s Q4 Manufacturing Barometer cited a need to fill skill gaps in their businesses over the next 12-24 months and over the past year, two-thirds also reported having open positions that they were unable to fill with experienced or skilled employees. In order to begin filling the gap, 78 percent of respondents plan to hire new skill function employees over the next 12-24 months with the broadest needs in engineering/design (62 percent), manufacturing (44 percent) and R&D (28 percent).
Regionally, acquirers from Asia led the way in terms of volume in 2014, accounting for 107 of the 213 deals; however, inbound activity in the region remained subdued. China was the most active acquirer nation, accounting for 35 percent of all deals during the year.
While emerging market activity boomed in the fourth quarter, local market deals remained dominant and no cross-border activity was generated from Asia. Europe, on the other hand, saw a significant amount of local, inbound and outbound activity despite continued economic malaise in the region. Local and foreign buyers continue to scour the region for high quality businesses as they look to align their business portfolio with long-term attractive markets.
“China-involved deals in 2014 exceeded any year of the past 10; however, foreign buyers have become increasingly wary due to an oversupply of capacity, materials and debt in the region and local market consolidation. Given a perceived lack of innovation, inability to move up the value chain and cooling domestic markets, we expect Asian manufacturing companies to begin looking for opportunities in established markets in 2015,” said Bono.
According to PwC, strategic as well as financial investors continued to pursue high-quality industrial assets and were more willing to acquire companies with stable growth prospects, even at a higher valuation. In the fourth quarter of 2014, financial investors accounted for 36 percent of all deals.
“We expect market expansion, access to next wave technologies, and the compelling need to generate synergies to drive manufacturing M&A activity, particularly in established markets. The potential impact of the first round of regulatory tightening on U.S. economic activity along with the talent crunch will be key areas of focus for management but companies with healthy balance sheets and favorable access to financing will have a clear opportunity in 2015,” Bono concluded.
