by Gary Mintchell | Jan 13, 2015 | Automation, Education, Internet of Things, Leadership, News, Operations Management, Software, Technology
Let the debates begin! Jim Pinto has published his 2015 prognostications in the latest JimPintoBlog.
Check out his entire list and enter your thoughts on his blog. I’ll highlight some of his thoughts and add some of my own.
Automation Industry Trends
New inflection points will change the leadership lineup.
GM—I do not expect big changes in the automation leadership lineup. Mitsubishi, Rockwell Automation and Siemens are dominant in their home areas and fighting it out in China and India. Siemens has a bit of an edge having been international for a longer period of time. But as automation commoditizes, perhaps some new entrants will grab some share. If Bedrock Automation can market well, watch out for it. On the process side, Invensys is gone, absorbed by Schneider Electric. So the process automation business becomes even more of a minor part of the overall businesses, like ABB, Emerson Process Management, and Yokogawa. The only interesting situation in that market area is Honeywell Process Solutions. But I don’t really expect any change there.
I think 3D printing (additive manufacturing) is a game changer and one of the most important things from last week’s CES. It’s not strictly automation, though.
From Jim:
- Internet of Things (IoT): The Industrial Internet will transform the next decade. Intelligent sensors and networks will take measurement and control to the next level, dramatically improving productivity and efficiencies in production. Growth in 2015 will be bottom-up, not top-down.
- Smaller, Cheaper Sensors: Everyone is looking for or working on smaller, cheaper sensors for widespread use in IoT. Expect fast growth for sensors this year.
- Cloud Computing: Cloud computing technology reduces capital expenditures and IT labor costs by transferring responsibility to cloud computing providers, allowing secure and fast access for data-driven decisions. The significant gains in efficiency, cost and capability will generate continuing rapid growth in 2015.
- 3D Printing in Manufacturing: Today, do-it-yourself manufacturing is possible without tooling, large assembly lines or multiple supply chains. 3D printing is reshaping product development and manufacturing.
- Mobile Devices in Automation: The use of WiFi-connected tablets, smartphones and mobile devices is spreading quickly. Handheld devices reduce costs, improve operating efficiency, boost productivity and increases throughput. More and more employers are allowing BYOD (bring your own device).
- Robotics: Millions of small and medium-sized businesses that will benefit from cheaper robots that can economically produce a wide variety of products in small numbers. The next generation of robots will be cheaper and easier to set up, and will work with people rather than replace them.
- Control Systems Security: In spite of apprehensions over consumer security breach events, industrial cyber security has mostly been ignored due to lack of understanding of solution costs. Many companies struggle to justify what is seen as added cost to secure their operation. Major security breaches will change this attitude.
Business Technology Trends
Gartner’s top trends for 2015 (3) cover three themes: the merging of the real and virtual worlds, the advent of intelligence everywhere, and the technology impact of the digital business shift. There is a high potential for disruption to the business with the need for a major investment, or the risk of being late to adopt.
Here are the top Gartner trends:
- Computing Everywhere: As mobile devices continue to proliferate, there will be increased emphasis on the needs of the mobile users. Increasingly, the overall environment will need to adapt to the requirements of the mobile user
- 3D Printing: Worldwide shipments of 3D printers are expected to grow 98 percent in 2015, followed by a doubling of unit shipments in 2016, reaching a tipping point over the next three years.
- Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics: The volume of data generated by embedded systems generates vast pools of structured and unstructured data inside and outside the enterprise. Organizations need to deliver exactly the right information to the right person, at the right time, so analytics will become deeply, but invisibly embedded everywhere.
- Smart Machines: Advanced algorithms will allow systems to understand their environment, learn for themselves, and act autonomously.
- Cloud Computing: The convergence of cloud and mobile computing will continue to promote the growth of centrally coordinated applications that can be delivered to any device. Applications will evolve to support simultaneous use of multiple devices.
- Risk-Based Security and Self-Protection: All roads to the digital future lead through security. Organizations will increasingly recognize that it is not possible to provide a 100 percent secured environment. They will apply more-sophisticated risk assessment and mitigation tools. Every app needs to be self-aware and self-protecting.
GM—My take is that the biggest thing in this area is analytics combined with improved visualizations and dashboards that take advantage of smartphones and tablets. Cloud is here. IoT is here. Security will forever be an important part of business.
2015 Consumer Electronics Show
- Wearable Devices: The time is right for wearable devices.
- Practical green tech.
- Sustainability and transportation: Tesla Model X all-electric SUV with the doors that open like a Delorean. Electric-assisted bike technology; electric scooter with swappable batteries and dashboard analytics.
- Kid-Tech: Apps to help teach children science, math, and tech. Fun little robots that teach kids computer programming concepts. Drawing, design, and color patterns to help kids learn about robotics and computer programming.
GM—as I’ve already written, autonomous vehicles could be a game changer and 3D printing was huge. The outlier is drones. Who knows where that might go?
Future Prognostications 2015-2025
Here are ten prognostications for the next decade, picked from the World Future Society (7) forecasts, plus other readings and discussions with Futurists.
- – Education: A major shift to on-line education and certification is already happening, and will continue steadily.
- – Jobs: Advances in artificial intelligence will eliminate human workers.
- – Robot Work Force
- – Middle Class Impasse: delaying retirement, income stagnating
- – Driverless cars
- – Speak to Computers.
- – Robotic Augmentation (exoskeletons)
- – Health & Well-being: sensors everywhere
- – Brain scanning will replace juries
- -Energy: Futurist Ray Kurzweil notes that solar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years while costs have been dropping. He says solar energy is only six doublings (less than 14 years) away from meeting 100% percent of energy needs.
GM-There are going to be some disruptions and huge benefits from a number of these. Autonomous vehicles and health advances are fantastic. I wish education would change more quickly that it does. Even those who wish to disrupt education mainly only have the political agenda of “teachers’ unions” and driving down salaries. (Why is it a political agenda to drive down salaries. Shouldn’t we be trying to improve everyone’s lot in life?)
I’m not a fan of Kurzweil. 100% is not realistic—maybe residential, but not everything. Don’t think there’s enough volts there!
I think we are going to need those labor-saving, productivity-enhancing advancements because we’re actually facing a labor shortage in 10 years. Time to start thinking farther ahead.
Humans have a way of adapting to thrive. I am optimistic about the future!
Yes, Jim, I’m with you there!
by Gary Mintchell | Jan 12, 2015 | Automation, Internet of Things, News, Operations Management, Technology, Workforce
Manufacturing output and manufacturing employment are important factors in our economy. They are also sources of endless speculation and angst.
Last week I ran across this graph from “FRED”, the St. Louis Fed. The graph combines year-over-year change in manufacturing production and employment curves.
Notice that usually employment tracks production although not varying as much as production. I also noticed that whereas most months from October 1998 to November 2010 showed growing production, employment lost every one of those months.
The blog writer from the Fed wrote, “The role of manufacturing in the U.S. economy is often discussed. As shown in the FRED graph above, as a year-over-year percent change, the level of manufacturing has generally grown. (One striking exception is during the recent recession.) The number of employees working in manufacturing is a different story, however. It has sometimes grown, but it has nearly always grown less than the growth in manufacturing. This suggests that growth in manufacturing does not equal growth in manufacturing jobs. What’s the explanation? A prime candidate is productivity growth. Another is that the sectoral mix has shifted toward industries with higher value added, such as computers and electronics.”
I think they are on the right track. Could we also add process industries (refining and chemicals fall into the manufacturing NAICS, but upstream does not)? I couldn’t find the numbers quickly, but I think those industries require fewer employees than, say, automobile and machinery manufacturing. There were huge shifts in the technology and market fundamentals in those subsectors.
What’s coming
I’ve been listening to reports from last week’s edition of the International CES (formerly Consumer Electronics Show). I draw your attention, for example to this video/podcast roundup from This Week in Tech (TWiT), a popular technology industry round table.
During the first 45 minutes or so there was a discussion of autonomous vehicles. Whereas the usual fare at the show includes TVs, mobile phones, electronic gadgets, this year’s news—even outstripping Internet of Things—was dominated by car manufacturers. This was to the extent that the Detroit Auto Show was pushed back one week so that the manufacturers could focus effort on CES.
Car designers have increasingly incorporated electronics into vehicles. First was control systems, then HVAC, then entertainment systems. Now we are seeing a rapid uptake of taking control to the next level—controlling not only the engine and transmission, but driving itself. Autonomous vehicles were front and center. And these are not only concept cars.
Let’s consider the economic impact of autonomous vehicles. There is every potential that widespread adoption of these vehicles could reduce vehicle demand. I live in a rural area where cars are pretty much a necessity for getting anywhere.
Even so, what if there were a model where I could click an app on my iPhone and summon a car to pick me up and take me down to Dayton (40 miles of rural interstate) for a meeting. On my way to the meeting, I could be preparing for the meeting. Or, perhaps just reading. Either way, I don’t have to concentrate on driving.
In my grandfather’s day, that would have been called the Trolley. There was a passenger light rail system that went from Sidney to Dayton (and through Piqua, Troy, Tipp City and Vandalia). We haven’t had that since before WWII.
Especially in cities. It could really cut down on need for cars in suburbs where cabs are infrequent and expensive. But if you don’t need a car full time, you could have an on-demand car.
If electric cars get added to this mix, many more jobs would be eliminated by eliminating engines, complex transmissions, and the like.
Yes, I can see where manufacturing production could continue to increase, but the need for employees would drop.
However, in that same time frame, we will be faced with a declining labor force. This could be something fortuitous for our grandkids.
Other CES news
Check out this article about Toyota’s hydrogen automobile.
I also wrote about this cool little gadget that gives early warning of driver fatigue.
by Gary Mintchell | Dec 22, 2014 | Commentary, News, Workforce
Here is a “good news / bad news” report. While manufacturing business looks good right now, we have yet another fearful article about getting a new generation of engineers. For a little context, here is an article I wrote about milennials. This press release is from ThomasNet.
North America’s manufacturing sector is on an upward trajectory. However, a shortage of young talent, compounded by Baby Boomers’ negative perceptions about Millennials, could impact its continued expansion, according to ThomasNet’s latest Industry Market Barometer (IMB) research.
The annual survey of product and custom manufacturers shows continued growth for this sector. Companies are hiring, increasing production capacity, and investing for more growth to come. More than half (58 percent) grew in 2013, and 63 percent expect even more gains by the end of 2014.
Positive indicators are everywhere. Manufacturers are getting more business from their existing markets, and their average account values are rising. Nearly eight out of 10 (76 percent) are now selling overseas, and one-third expect that business to increase. In anticipation of what’s ahead, they’re investing in capital equipment, optimizing operations, upgrading their facilities, and retraining their people. More than half (52 percent) expect to add staff in the next several months, up from the 42 percent who planned to hire last year. Respondents’ companies are looking for trained, experienced people—manufacturing/production management, line workers, skilled trade workers and engineers—to keep up with current and future demand.
Troublesome Trends
A deeper look under the hood raises questions about whether the manufacturing industry can continue its current momentum. “For the industry to sustain its steady climb, all the fundamentals need to be in place, and one of them is missing—a robust pipeline of talent,” said Mark Holst-Knudsen, President of ThomasNet.
Last year’s IMB called attention to the “ticking biological clock” in manufacturing—the disruption that’s coming as Baby Boomers leave the workforce without people primed to replace them. This year’s survey depicts the “ticking” turning to an alarm. Nearly half of this year’s respondents (49 percent) are 55 and older. Moreover, thirty-eight percent plan to retire in one to ten years, and most (65 percent) lack any succession plan.
One solution is in plain sight—the Millennial generation (ages 18-32)—who can take the time to learn the business before their predecessors retire. Yet, most manufacturers (62 percent) say Millennials represent a small fraction of their workforce, and eight out of ten (81 percent) have no explicit plans to increase those numbers.
However, companies are making headway in the area of apprenticeships, which provide opportunities to bring in entry-level employees and career changers. For manufacturers where these programs are applicable, 51 percent now have them in place, and 23 percent plan to do so. They’re teaching apprentices trades such as machining, CNC milling and turning, and welding while increasing their staff.
“We need new talent everywhere—on the plant floor, in the field, and in management—and getting young people to look at manufacturing isn’t easy,” said Karen Norheim, Executive Vice President, American Crane & Equipment Corporation, Douglassville, Pa. “To ensure our company’s success, our employees have become brand ambassadors for manufacturing. We’re bringing our children to our plants, looking at new internship programs, and reaching out to local colleges and trade schools. By making a local footprint, we’re helping to address a national problem.”
Baby Boomers’ Perceptions of Millennials
This year’s data shows that the manufacturing industry increasingly aligns with Millennials’ value systems and technology expertise. The research demonstrates that Millennials have an opportunity to make a social impact working with sustainable and green technologies, solar energy, and wind power. In addition, respondents cite innovations in design and manufacturing software, automation/robotics, and 3D printing as intrinsic to today’s jobs.
But 46 percent of respondents say that a larger issue is at work – younger people still perceive manufacturing as “blue collar” work. And Baby Boomers’ perceptions of Millennials exacerbate the challenge. Forty-three percent of respondents believe that this generation lacks the work ethic and discipline to succeed.
“At a time when the American manufacturing sector is poised for a comeback, the talent shortage is the elephant-in-the-room that could impede progress. It will take the concerted effort of every manufacturer to reach across generational lines, and bring in the people who are critical to the industry’s continued success,” said ThomasNet’s President Mark Holst-Knudsen.
by Gary Mintchell | Dec 12, 2014 | Automation, Workforce
Often times I think that we worry about the wrong thing and take too short of a view when we talk about automation and robots taking jobs. It is not going to be long before we don’t have enough people for the jobs we’ll need.
From a recent TED Talk:
“It sounds counterintuitive, but by 2030, many of the world’s largest economies will have more jobs than adult citizens to do those jobs. In this data-filled — and quite charming — talk, human resources expert Rainer Strack suggests that countries ought to look across borders for mobile and willing job seekers. But to do that, they need to start by changing the culture in their businesses.”
