by Gary Mintchell | Mar 31, 2017 | Automation, Commentary, Education, News
Here we go again—who’s winning the war for manufacturing jobs? Man or machine? Human or robot? John Henry, the steel-driving man, or the steam machine?
Claire Cain Miller wrote the usual type of manufacturing article for The New York Times with the usual click-bait headline–Evidence That Robots Are Winning the Race for American Jobs. Typically, there was no one from manufacturing quoted, only economists.
Later in my essay, I’ll take a look at where the best manufacturing writing is going on these days (aside from here, of course). Surprisingly, that place is TechCrunch. Founded as a blog-style (the first?) news source for Silicon Valley startups and VCs, it lost its way under AOL, but is getting better. I don’t look at trade journals for this sort of writing. Check it out.
So Miller writes
Who is winning the race for jobs between robots and humans? Last year, two leading economists described a future in which humans come out ahead. But now they’ve declared a different winner: the robots.
The industry most affected by automation is manufacturing. For every robot per thousand workers, up to six workers lost their jobs and wages fell by as much as three-fourths of a percent, according to a new paper by the economists, Daron Acemoglu of M.I.T. and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University. It appears to be the first study to quantify large, direct, negative effects of robots.
In one of the weirdest statements, she asks why productivity hasn’t been increasing, then rebutting her own thesis, she states, “In manufacturing, productivity has been increasing more than elsewhere.”
The study analyzed the effect of industrial robots in local labor markets in the United States. Robots are to blame for up to 670,000 lost manufacturing jobs between 1990 and 2007, it concluded, and that number will rise because industrial robots are expected to quadruple.
The paper adds to the evidence that automation, more than other factors like trade and offshoring that President Trump campaigned on, has been the bigger long-term threat to blue-collar jobs.
John Bernaden posted this article on LinkedIn, and I responded:
This study just puts some numbers on something that we’ve known for a long time–the days when an unskilled person can find a middle-class level job have passed. There do exist many blue-collar jobs, but the pay is not what it used to be. In my small town that is heavily industrialized, there are 370 job openings in local manufacturing (population of our county is 57,000). These jobs have been open for quite some time. Many people who are not now employed cannot pass a drug test. One manufacturer recently lamented that people show up for work, and then they don’t come back after a day or two. Other jobs do require at least some level of skill. I also recommend this Tech Crunch article, which is a balanced look at the benefits and drawbacks of automation. https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/26/technology-is-killing-jobs-and-only-technology-can-save-them/?ncid=rss By the way, TechCrunch and other new media are doing an excellent job of covering manufacturing whereas the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, which are otherwise good sources, don’t seem to have writers who have a clue about these enterprises.
Brian Heater writing in the above referenced TechCrunch article, Technology is killing jobs, and only technology can save them, noted that the presidential election rhetoric diverted attention from automation by pointing to trade agreements and globalization. He points out Treasury Secretary Steve Munchen dismissing the prospects of artificial intelligence and automation saying, “it’s not even on our radar screen…. 50-100 more years” away. “I’m not worried at all” about robots displacing humans in the near future, he said, adding: “In fact I’m optimistic.”
Heater continues: Colin Parris, the vice president of Software Research at GE, is refreshingly straightforward when speaking to TechCrunch about the topic. “Yes,” he says, matter-of-factly, “there will be job losses.”
It’s blunt, sure. But it’s refreshing coming from an executive at a company so heavily invested in automation. But Parris’ story, naturally, doesn’t end there. His long-term projections — and those of his peers in manufacturing — are actually a fair bit sunnier.
“The only way to fight [job losses],” Parris continues, “is to train the talent that we have. Because in the future, we have to embrace robotics. It allows us to reduce cost. If I reduce cost, I have more money that I can use for innovation. The more money I have, the more new products I can create. The more products I create, the more workforce I can hire.“
That’s a trend that certainly has historical precedent. Technology has had a major impact on the workforce dating back at least as far as the Industrial Revolution — when various tasks became more automated and the types of jobs available changed as a result. At the turn of the last century, 41 percent of U.S. jobs were in or around agriculture. A century later, the number had plummeted to 1.9 percent.
The discussion about training begins to get us on the right course.
First off, I believe that these people talking about robots have no idea what work they really do. They probably don’t even know about the current “co-bot” trend where robots and people collaborate on assembly tasks.
More importantly, the point missing from the discussion—and often from executive suites as well—concerns the value of people. Companies that value people as an asset, seek diversity, and encourage people to use their brains consistently outperform cost-cutters in the long term. There is automation, and there will be automation. Some things are just better done with a machine.
The John Henry story dates back probably to about 1870 to a contest held at a tunnel for a railroad in Virginia or West Virginia. John Henry beat the machine in drilling holes in rocks for placement of dynamite. But they he died from the stress. What we are discussing is not new.
Heater did come close to interviewing a manufacturing person for his more balanced article. “It might take employees out of what we call the ‘three Ds,’ a dull, dirty or dangerous job,” says Bob Doyle of the Association for Advancing Automation. But “[it] puts them hopefully in a different position that creates more value to the company,” he added.
Parris also cites the “three Ds” — referring specifically to flare stacks used to burn off the flammable gas from drilling operations in the Bering Sea. “These flare stacks are exposed to the elements because they’re out in the ocean, and you have to have people climb these things and look to see if there’s rust and corrosion,” Parris explains. “Who wants to do that? They’re dull, dirty and dangerous. It’s a huge problem.”
Heater’s conclusions, But technology has also been a major driver in helping keep companies competitive, so to shy away from it would surely only result in even greater domestic job loss. In order to move forward, we need to embrace technology both as a means of production and a method for producing new roles.
But pulling off such a coup is going to require some massive investments in education, both on the part of the corporations looking to move valued employees into new roles and an education system preparing workers for the real world. Failure to do so will only accelerate the growing rift between so-called low- and high-skilled workers, and the whole of our economy — and future — will suffer as a result.
There was a time we were optimistic about educating people for a better lot in life. Has our society become pessimistic? Hope is lost?
And I have to ask these questions above. Do we as a society no longer believe in the power of education?
I say that as a typical (well, sort of) American. But I know who does believe in the power of study and hard work. That would be immigrants, especially from Asia, but also South of the Border. I know that I’m bucking political winds with that statement. But those families come here, work hard, study hard, so that the children will be successful.
Too many Americans (far from a majority of course), well, they can’t pass a drug test.
by Gary Mintchell | Mar 28, 2017 | Automation, Education, Leadership, Technology
Manufacturing in America—an event bringing together vendors, academia, end users of controls and automation. Siemens Industry, collaborating with its local distributor Electro-Matic, held a trade show/seminar series/thought leadership summit at the Marriott Renaissance Center Detroit March 22-23. The show has a distinct automotive industry feel, as you might expect, even though Detroit, and indeed all of Michigan, is reforming itself along high tech lines with less reliance on traditional automotive.
There was certainly a lot of thought leadership opportunity at the event. There was the Siemens Industry President of Digital Factory. There was the Governor of the State of Michigan.
And then, there was the group of high school students competing in the FIRST Robotics competition known as the ThunderChickens—Engineering A Better Way To Cross The Road. The picture shows a model of their robot. Such passion. Such creativity. The mechanical guy pointed to the control module. “It limits me to 6 motors,” he said. “Last year we only had one, but this year I could have used many more.”
Six motors!! What I’d have given as a kid building stuff to have one! Oh well, they were great.
Raj Batra, President of Digital Factory for Siemens, said the focus is on digitalization. Digital Twin is a piece of digitalization. This is the digital representation of a physical thing—product, machine, or component. Siemens brought all this together through the 2007 investment in acquiring UGS to form Siemens PLM. “Companies thought it was hype back then, now we know it drives value,” said Batra. “If you are a pure automation company how do you accomplish all this without a design component? You can’t have the digital twin. Meanwhile, a CAE company that doesn’t have automation and control do manufacturing—what do you get?” Batra added challenging the competition.
Batra continued, “We are close to a new era of autonomous manufacturing. And there is the growth of IIoT, we call Mindsphere. This all means manufacturing is no longer a black box to the enterprise. Indeed, it is strategic to the enterprise.”
Paul Maloche, vp sales and marketing Fori Automation, manufacturers of automated guided vehicles, discussed the methods by which collaboration with suppliers (in this case with Siemens) leads to innovation. Fori was diversifying from reliance on building machines for automotive applications, and evaluated the aerospace industry. The Siemens rep came in and said they could help get them into that market. But Fori would have to convert to Siemens control. The Fori team replied, “OK.” This led to development of automated guided vehicle technology and products. The partnership opened doors. Fori won several orders in aerospace market for the new AGVs with Siemens control.
Alistair Orchard, Siemens PLM, riffing off a space movie, began his talk, “Detroit, we have a problem.” All the old business models of trying to ship jobs overseas has not worked. We need to make stuff to be successful as a society. “So much of what we do has not changed in 50 years in manufacturing,” he noted, “but digitalization can change everything. Additive manufacturing can lead to mass customization due to 3D printing using the digital twin. You can try things out, find problems in design or manufacturing. You can use predictive analytics at design stage. Digital enterprise is about manufacturing close to the customer.”
Governor Rick Snyder, Michigan, touted his manufacturing background as former operations head at Gateway Computers. “As governor,” he said, “it’s about how you can build an ecosystem and platform for success. Long term, success needs talent. His philosophy contains the idea that we shouldn’t tell students what they should study, but let them know where opportunities are and how to prepare for them. The private sector needs to tell government what they need in the way of talent.”
Michigan has grown more manufacturing jobs than anywhere else in the country. Not only manufacturing, though, Michigan is also a center of industrial design. But the economy not only needs designers and engineers, but also people in skilled trades. “We need to promote that as a profession. We must break the silos that said your opportunities are limited to your initial career choice.”
Michigan has invested a lot in students, especially in FIRST Robotics, where Michigan teams have risen to the top. The state has also started a computer science competition in cyber security.
How are you innovating and making the world better?
Josh Linkner, CEO Detroit Venture Partners, gave the keynote address on innovation. I’ll leave you with his Five Obsessions of Innovators.
1. Curiosity—ask open ended questions
2. Crave what’s next—future orientation
3. Defy tradition—use Judo flip to turn idea on its head
4. Get scrappy—grit, determination, tenacity
5. Adapt fast
by Gary Mintchell | Mar 24, 2017 | Automation, Operations Management, Podcast, Standards
I discuss the importance of interoperability of applications and the role of standards–specifically OPC UA and CCOM, an asset information standard from MIMOSA. I also throw in a description of students I met who compete in FIRST Robotics and a tip for cultivating innovation.
by Gary Mintchell | Mar 23, 2017 | Data Management, Internet of Things, Operations Management
Digital Transformation and Internet of Things were prominent at this week’s user conference. I could be in San Francisco at the OSIsoft user conference. But, no, I’m in Detroit at a different one. However, we have two news items from the conference.
The first one is Marketplace, an online collection of software and hardware solutions for accelerating digital transformation for the industrial world. It links utilities, energy companies, manufacturers, food and beverage producers, and other industrial customers with the 300+ hardware, software, and integration partners in the OSIsoft Partner EcoSphere as well as the 2600 third-party developers in the PI Developers Club.
On Marketplace, customers can discover and compare leading solutions for the Internet of Things, predictive analytics and machine learning, reducing asset downtime, data visualization and cloud-based analytics. Customers can also engage specialists for remote asset and process monitoring, condition-based maintenance, and performance benchmarking.
“Industrial transformation is one of the largest, and most challenging, economic opportunities of our time. Marketplace will help our customers extend the value of their existing investments while laying the groundwork for new digital services,” said Martin Otterson, Senior Vice President of Customer Success at OSIsoft. “With Marketplace, customers will be able to connect with companies and service providers with deep experience in their fields and accelerate their journey for digital transformation.”
OSIsoft Marketplace participants and solutions include:
- National Instruments (NI) provides LabVIEW system design software and NI InsightCM Enterprise software for condition monitoring, which can bidirectionally communicate with the PI System
- Rockwell Automation, which integrates the PI System into its FactoryTalk platform, making it easy to aggregate plant automation data across the enterprise for real-time insights
- Power Factors, providing high-quality, independent performance data for renewable energy, which allows owners and operators to standardize across their diverse portfolios and drive improvements in the physical and financial performance of their assets.
- Element Analytics, an advanced industrial analytics software company that rapidly builds Asset Frameworks through software and empowers organizations to achieve new levels of operational performance, by rapidly turning data into actionable reliability, productivity, and sustainability insights.
- eVision Industry Software creates best-in-class Control of Work software. Innovative solutions that improve the way oil, gas, chemical and other hazardous industries operate on a global and local scale. eVision’s integration with the PI System provides users with real-time situational awareness, from permit draft to control room.
The OSIsoft partner EcoSphere helps customers maximize the value of their PI System infrastructure. Over 300 companies are official members of the OSIsoft Partner Ecosphere. In addition to the Marketplace, the Partner EcoSphere provides accreditation and specialization programs to recognize individuals from partner companies who have completed comprehensive technical training requirements. Globally, 250 people from more than 40 partner companies are accredited PI System specialists.
Industrial Internet of Things
The second announcement concerns collaboration with partners such as Advantech/B+B SmartWorx, ADLink, Arrow and RtTech to encourage the development of new products and offerings that will deploy PI-based gateways, for example, to link facilities data to production data or enable pipeline companies to harvest data in remote locations.
“Our customers face a digital dilemma. They want to invest in new IIoT technology and begin to capture and analyze new sources of data. At the same time, they worry about incompatibilities or integration challenges that can outweigh the benefits,” said Otterson. “Through these partnerships we can eliminate these problems by ensuring that these new sources of data can be added to existing data infrastructures easily. Ultimately we want to make it easier for any authorized person to get insight into any device or process at any time.”
OSIsoft has prepared a software portfolio for edge gateway hardware providers and others that contain the necessary PI System technology to accelerate connectivity with remote and mobile assets, IIoT sensors and the PI System. With this combination of OSIsoft software and partner hardware technology, OSIsoft enables a host of partners including equipment suppliers, application providers and system integrators to quickly and easily create solutions at the edge. This will allow customers to run the PI System closer to remote assets – transformers, gas compressor stations, distributed gas, electric and water meters, industrial vehicles, wind turbines – where the data can be stored, viewed, and analyzed, enabling robust data collection, faster decision making, and optimized network bandwidth utilization.
IIoT in Action
In addition, where existing control and monitoring systems cannot accommodate new sensors, or are too costly to upgrade, new streams of IIoT sensor-based data can be added in parallel to existing process data and viewed in a common interface.
As an early advocate of using the PI System for IIoT, RtTech is blazing the trail on what’s possible when combining these technologies. RtTech, for instance, is working with tissue manufacturers to instrument and monitor remote ‘log saws’ that cut lengthy tubes of paper into rolls of toilet paper or other consumables. Because of their isolation and age, the only option for monitoring their health was to rely on manual inspections with pencils and clipboards, or complex retrofits that are often cost prohibitive.
Using new edge gateway technology with integrated PI system technology, RtTech’s energy and reliability apps can now help with efficiency and energy savings on remote equipment. As a result, customers now have operational insight into isolated equipment and can take corrective actions in real time.
“We’ve seen manufacturers reduce power consumption by 7%, increase asset availability by as much as 10% and improve event capture rates to 99% accuracy,” said Keith Flynn, President of RtTech. “By working with OSIsoft and using IIoT technology, we are pushing these same outcomes to remote operations and assets regardless of their location. We want our customers to have the same insight and intelligence on all their equipment, local or remote.”
by Gary Mintchell | Mar 22, 2017 | Data Management, Internet of Things, Operations Management
Analytics is everything when it comes to looking at the value of the Internet of Things ecosystem. It matters not if you can tie all the intelligent devices together if you cannot gain intelligence about them. Here is another take at doing analytics at the edge. This is not the first one I’ve seen, but it reflects a trend.
Greenwave Systems announced that the acquisition of Predixion Software has enabled it to offer a real-time visual edge analytics solution called AXON Predict. Greenwave’s AXON Predict performs analytics at the edge. It adds a new level of intelligence to machines and sensors at every step of the network, enabling real-time action right at the source of input.
“We’ve built a small, smart, self-healing and predictive maintenance solution to reduce asset management costs and drive new revenue streams for enterprises and original equipment manufacturers (OEM),” said Simon Arkell, general manager of software platforms and analytics at Greenwave Systems. “We tailor our visual analytics engine for each customer to maximize efficiency, deliver automatic anomaly detection and unleash opportunities that other solutions simply can’t deliver.”
Greenwave’s AXON Platform extends analytics and machine learning down to the chip level and at all points in between. With the addition of AXON Predict to its product family, the company is now extending computational power and real intelligence to industrial, commercial, and consumer market segments within the Internet of Things (IoT). Together, the company’s real-time visual edge analytics software and sophisticated data management platform will enable enterprises and OEMs to manage critical data at the edge of a network in real time, which is far more effective than waiting for it to be uploaded and processed in the cloud.
“We’ve seen a real need for this in the market and our customers have affirmed our belief; smart devices often lack the ability to analyze real-time data at the source, causing latency, compliance and cost issues associated with data loss,” said Arkell. “We’re addressing this pain point head on by delivering intelligence to make devices and ordinary silicon smarter. Our analytics engine provides sharper insights and faster response times for our customers and helps them improve both their top and bottom line.”
