by Gary Mintchell | Dec 21, 2021 | Commentary, News
I like the methodology of Interact Analysis industrial market research better than any I’ve seen so far. At the end of the year, they’ve flooded me with reports. Following are summaries from several of the latest ones including industrial machinery, global machinery production, German manufacturing, and industrial robots.
A Square Root Recovery For Industrial Machinery?
At times of economic turbulence, machinery markets get hit as consumer goods manufacturers slash spending. As we move into the post-pandemic era, the picture for machine builders is mixed. A recovery is underway. But it is likely to be a so-called square root recovery. In reality, this means a lasting slowdown that looks like an inverted square root – a huge and sudden dip, followed by a much slower and more protracted climb.
If we consider order intakes alone, the machinery recovery is a classic V-shape: end-users, having paused spending during the pandemic, are now ordering machinery in large quantities. The problem is that OEMs cannot meet this demand due to supply chain snarl-ups depriving them of vital components and semiconductors, and also due to there being simply too many orders coming in at once. The situation is ironic since, in the main, the major end-user manufacturers were able to keep producing as normal during the pandemic – only pausing planned machinery upgrades out of caution.
Full Recovery For Global Machinery Production In 2021, As Sector Size Surpasses 2019
This is an analysis by CEO Adrian Lloyd.
Our research shows that the global machinery market was worth $1.98 trillion in 2020. This constituted YoY growth of about -6%. But we expect to see a 6.2% rebound in 2021 up to $2.11 trillion. Materials handling equipment is the largest segment, with a 2020 value of $275 billion. Our forecasts for the total machinery sector out to 2025 put the three highest CAGRs as mining machinery (5.3%), farming machinery (5.1%) and textile machinery (4.5%). Multi-industry machinery will have a CAGR of 3.8% over the forecast period, with materials handling equipment performing particularly well within that category (CAGR 4.7%), owing to the booming warehousing and logistics sectors.
German Manufacturing On The Mend
Another analysis from Lloyd.
Our updated manufacturing industry output research forecasts global growth of 7.6% for 2021. This is a much smaller recovery compared with the one we witnessed in 2010, when manufacturing output grew by 16% following the 2009 depression. The hangover from the pandemic has manifested itself in a number of specific ways. Supply chains have been badly disrupted, transport and raw material costs are up, and there is a major labour shortage in many countries. Additionally, reciprocal pressure (i.e. a high recovery rate in economies that experienced sudden economic declines in 2020) means that the current projected 2021 growth rate is not a good indicator for the long-term.
But German manufacturing has now to weather the latest COVID-19 wave. Hopefully the experience of 2020 will stand the sector in good stead. In line with the established cyclical patterns caused by fluctuating waves of demand across our MIO forecast regions, the next contraction for German manufacturing is forecast for 2023.
Industrial robot component revenues to exceed $9.3 billion by 2025
New research shows that the market for industrial robot components will enjoy strong double digit growth in 2021, marking a clear turnaround after two years of disruption. However, 2021 market growth in revenue terms can be partially explained by major price increases in key components and raw materials, as well as supply chain issues and general inflationary pressure.
The key components markets covered by the report – motors, drives, gearboxes, controllers, teach pendants, sensors, end effectors, and machine vision – are all forecast for growth of varying degrees. Machine vision and end effectors will see the strongest performance as a result of particularly strong growth in the complex robotics systems that require these components. End effectors, which is the largest individual component market, will enjoy above average growth right out to 2025, by which time the sector will be worth more than $2.5 billion. Meanwhile, the combined market for motors, drives, and gearboxes will exceed that of end effectors, although a high proportion of these components are manufactured in-house by robot manufacturers themselves.
Industrial Robot Component Manufacturers Should Target Cobots
Finally, here is an essay by Tim Dawson of Interact Analysis.
But we are seeing a strong 2021 rebound as end customers resume much-delayed industrial automation projects. Beyond 2021, although activity will not be so frenzied, we predict continued strong growth, not least because the experience of operating factories along social distancing lines has made even the most conservative production line managers think hard about the potential that automation offers. By 2024, the market for industrial and collaborative robots should achieve its previous 2018 revenue peak of $10.5 billion, with 410,000 units shipped.
While the overall industrial robot market is forecast to see annual growth of the order of 4% – 5%, the collaborative robot sector is expected to enjoy 15%-20% year-on-year growth. We are seeing a trend towards smaller, lower payload robots, as industries such as electronics continue to automate, and new industries such as battery manufacturing and PV manufacturing increasingly come on stream. SCARA robots with a payload usually of <10 kg, for example, are already the most widely used robot solution in the electronics sector, and have a broad range of applications, including material handling, assembly, and inspection. This clear trend towards smaller robots will heavily impact the robot components sector.
by Gary Mintchell | Dec 20, 2021 | Operations Management, Workforce
What is your experience as an employee? I’d like to juxtapose two attitudes in this brief essay. The first one reveals the results of a survey that “finds a major disconnect between employees and HR in supporting wellbeing at work.” That one wasn’t surprising. My philosophy developed in the 70s holds that companies once had Personnel departments that viewed employees as people. These changed to Human Resources departments that viewed people as resources just like machines and switchgear and other resources.
Ken Bannister writes in the other piece about his experience with a mentor early in his career. Reading this one, consider people who have helped you along and who you should be helping now.
Major Disconnect Between Employees & HR in Supporting Wellbeing at Work
Half of employees feel stressed, and few are getting the support they need despite HR beliefs about wellbeing at work. Of the HR leaders polled, half (47%) say their company supports employee wellbeing, while just a quarter (24%) of employees agreeing — a major disconnect. That’s according to the new Empowering Employee Wellbeing in the New World of Work report from Achievers Workforce Institute (AWI). AWI is the research and insights arm of Achievers, the global leader in employee voice and recognition solutions that accelerate a culture of performance.
The global research surveyed more than 2,000 employed respondents and 950 HR leaders from Australia, Canada, UK and USA, and found just one in five (20%) employees say they feel physically and mentally healthy and less than one in five feel their physical wellbeing (17%) and mental wellbeing (18%) are supported by their employer. Nearly half (48%) of employees feel stressed, and of that group, two-thirds (63%) say their stress is related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“As we look ahead at the weeks and months to come, it’s easy to think that the worst is behind us with vaccinations on the rise and many businesses starting a phased return to the office. However, the wellbeing research from Achievers Workforce Institute shows that stress remains high, with COVID-19 as a key driver,” says Achievers Chief Workforce Scientist Dr. Natalie Baumgartner. “Almost one third of employees surveyed have taken leave due to stress, and this is even higher for marginalized groups. HR leaders need to understand how and why marginalized groups are experiencing heightened stress, otherwise inequities will deepen and result in cultural erosion over time.”
HR leaders are twice as likely as employees to say their organization supports employee wellbeing, including mental wellbeing. In addition, 40% of HR leaders feel their company offers employees resources to support their mental wellbeing, but just 18% of employees feel supported at work in managing their mental wellbeing.
This disconnect suggests one of two things: either existing programs are not being sufficiently communicated so employees are unaware of the available support, or these programs are reaching employees but not having the desired impact.
Achievers’ employee voice and recognition solutions bring your organization’s values and strategy to life by activating employee participation and accelerating a culture of performance. Achievers leverages the science behind behavior change, so your people and your organization can experience sustainable, data-driven business results.
Mentoring
I worked with Ken Bannister a bit when I detoured into working with a magazine called Maintenance Technology. He now works with a team of people I know who started a newsletter and website called The RAM Review. This essay can be found here.
As a young design engineer, I worked under the tutelage of my mentor Tedeus (Ted) Monkiewicz. Within this arrangement, I often accompanied him on visits to customer operations that were experiencing machine warranty issues/problems. At each sites, I was not to speak, but observe and record every little detail of the job, however inconsequential. Then, when we left a site, I would report to Ted on my findings, conclusions, and recommendations.
Ted typically would remind me in the customers’ parking lots to base my reports on my six senses. As he put it, “I want you to see with your fingertips, nose, and ears, touch with your eyes, and say nothing until asked”.
In the process, Ted helped me to understand that a precision machine, built and set up correctly, should present only the faintest of vibration. (Any more than that level of vibration required further investigation into how the drivetrain components were fastened and aligned.) But, even more important, Ted taught me to ensure machine were treated with respect.
I would like to issue a challenge to all readers for the next time you approach a machine to troubleshoot a problem (as Ted always challenged me and his memory still does today). I challenge you to combine your training and experience with your six primary senses to “experience” and assess the problem in a unique, organic, and multi-dimensional way. Only this time, perform your sense assessment from the machine’s perspective.
by Gary Mintchell | Dec 17, 2021 | Automation, Embedded Control, Industrial Computers, Software
A fervent issue for discussion in German automation circles, especially for those who wish to displace Siemens from its leading position, is software-based control. An early leader in this technology is Beckhoff Automation. This press release made public this week gives some of the technology historical foundation. Yes, it’s commercial. But, yes, it’s interesting to see where we’ve been in order to speculate on where we’re heading.
The TwinCAT automation software suite from Beckhoff has reached its 25th anniversary in the market. Ubiquitous in automation today, TwinCAT has served as a powerful resource for engineers since 1996 – a quarter of a century. In addition, the underlying PC-based control technology from Beckhoff has been going strong since 1986, marking 35 years in the industry. TwinCAT, short for The Windows Control and Automation Technology, provides numerous benefits from its robust software functionality. The advantages of TwinCAT stem from its modular expandability extending to support for innovations such as integrated machine vision and artificial intelligence.
Since the 1996 introduction of the first software generation, TwinCAT 2, this product is still available and maintained, which is proof of its continuity and compatibility with current systems. Windows served as the operating system and the PLC programming was adapted to meet the requirements of the IEC 61131-3 standard. This introduced the ability to implement an industrial control system on a “regular” PC with a standard operating system.
Another milestone was the decision to align the TwinCAT programming environment with the world’s predominant IT programming environment. Microsoft Visual Studio is used for all major IT software developments, and Beckhoff also used this tool to develop TwinCAT 2 software. So why not develop PLC software applications with Visual Studio as well? The subsequent TwinCAT 3 software generation was introduced in 2010 and delivered to customers from 2011 on – which makes for another 10-year anniversary and another track record of success in the field.
The integration of the TwinCAT automation tools into Visual Studio established a completely new type of engineering environment. With the availability to use additional programming standards such as C/C++ and MATLAB/Simulink, further possibilities emerged for more efficient code generation for machines and systems. This has also gained widespread acceptance in the automation industry.
In addition to programming, TwinCAT offers an I/O configuration interface for a wide variety of fieldbus systems – first and foremost EtherCAT as well as more than 30 other communication protocols. Motion control applications from simple PTP movements to sophisticated CNC and robot kinematics are just as much part of the ongoing evolution as safety functions, image processing for machine vision and machine learning. With the advent of Industrie 4.0 and the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), it quickly became clear that the cloud, long established in IT, would also become a major factor in the automation market. To provide this functionality for customers, Beckhoff launched hardware and software solutions for IoT and cloud connectivity in 2015, followed by data analytics tools in 2018.
by Gary Mintchell | Dec 17, 2021 | Automation, Sensors
Looks like this is the next evolution of vision sensing. Vision is one of the key sensors touted by IIoT marketers. Eyeonic Vision Sensor said to be poised to accelerate next-generation machine vision in mobility, robotics, security, and other markets.
From its press release: SiLC Technologies Inc. (SiLC) has launched its powerful, compact vision sensor delivering coherent vision and chip-scale integration to the broader market. The Eyeonic Vision Sensor takes LiDAR to a new level of performance by providing accurate instantaneous depth, velocity, and dual-polarization intensity information while enabling immunity to multi-user and environmental interference. These features will enable robotic vehicles and machines to have the necessary data to perceive and classify their environment and help them predict future dynamics using low-latency, low-compute power and rule-based algorithms.
Harvesting the additional information that is carried by photons, Eyeonic is the foundation for the next generation of machine vision. The Eyeonic Vision Sensor is a first-of-its-kind FMCW LiDAR transceiver. At the nexus of the Eyeonic Vision Sensor is SiLC’s silicon photonic chip which integrates LiDAR functionality into a single, tiny chip. Representing decades of silicon photonics innovation, this chip is the only readily-integratable solution for manufacturers building the next generation of autonomous vehicles, security solutions and industrial robots.
Keenly driven by the technology challenges of commercializing silicon photonics, SiLC’s integration platform brings together high-performance components into a single silicon chip through mature semiconductor fabrication processes, offering a low-cost, compact, and low-power solution.
The ability to manufacture commercial-grade coherent LiDAR solutions has become a pacing factor for market growth – a situation that SiLC is remedying. SiLC intends to make this technology available to all system integrators and end-users, starting with enabling early access to strategic partners in autonomy, security and industrial applications. Offered in two configurations, fiber and fiberless, Eyeonic addresses the current roadblocks facing industries that rely upon vision sensors to embrace burgeoning market opportunities.
Fiberless vision sensors have long been sought after as they enable the lowest cost in a compact configuration. The fiber pigtailed Eyeonic allows for design flexibility by supporting configurations where the FMCW LiDAR transceiver and scanning unit are at different locations.
To facilitate customer development efforts, SiLC offers reference designs and a range of key components needed to develop a full solution. Examples of fully configured systems, based on the Eyeonic platform, will be made available as prototypes to enable rapid evaluation by customers and end users.
by Gary Mintchell | Dec 16, 2021 | Manufacturing IT, News, Organizations, Software, Standards
Industries cannot advance without standards. Trains could not operate across a continent. I could not connect to the world from my computer through WiFi to an Internet. Standards may be recognized by governments or they may be de facto industry standards. The key benefit from standards is interoperability. At some level, competing proprietary products can interoperate. I can send a text from my iPhone to your Android phone. I support standards in the name of interoperability. I say this as preamble to three pieces of news coming from the Linux Foundation.
EdgeX Foundry Announces Jakarta, the Project’s First Long Term Support Release
EdgeX Foundry, a Linux Foundation project under the LF Edge project umbrella, announced the release of version 2.1 of EdgeX, codenamed ‘Jakarta.’ The project’s ninth release, it follows the recent Ireland release, which was the project’s second major release (version 2.0). Jakarta is significant in that it is EdgeX’s first release to offer long term support (LTS).
“Our Jakarta release is a stabilization release,” said Jim White, the EdgeX Foundry Technical Steering Committee (TSC) Chairman and co-founder of the project. “As such, it is our project community’s pledge to adopters that EdgeX offers you a stable version of the platform that you can expect the community to stand behind and support for a period of two years. We stand with you in support of EdgeX in real world, commercial deployments of the platform.”
“Only a few open-source projects offer long term support; the rapid change of open source projects and the effort needed to LTS is significant,” said Arpit Joshipura, general manager, Networking, Edge and IoT, at the Linux Foundation. “By including LTS, EdgeX demonstrates it understands the needs of the operational technology (OT) user base, and how products in this space must work and operate over longer periods of time than traditional IT solutions,” said Arpit Joshipura. “This is a big milestone for any open source community, and we are incredibly proud of EdgeX Foundry for this achievement.”
The EdgeX long term support policy states that the community will work as quickly as possible and give “best effort and development priority to fix major flaws as soon as possible.” Major flaws by the project are defined as
• bugs causing the system or service to crash and where there is no work around for the function
• bugs for a feature/function that does not work and there is no work around for the function
• a security issue deemed a critical or high-level CVE (per CVSS)
The project has further stipulated in its LTS policy that “no new major functionality (at the discretion of the TSC) will be added” to the LTS version after the release happens.
The next EdgeX release, codenamed “Kamakura,” is set for Spring 2022. The community has held its semi-annual planning session to lay out the goals and objectives of this release. Kamakura is likely to be another dot-release that will again be backward compatible with all EdgeX 2.x releases (Ireland and Jakarta). Major additions currently under consideration and being developed by the community include:
• Initial north to south message bus. Improved security secrets seeding and allowing for delayed service starts.
• Metrics collection
• Dynamic device profiles. Better (native) Windows support
• Improve testing – including real hardware testing
• A second version release of the EdgeX Command Line Interface (CLI) which, compatible with EdgeX v2.x.
The Cyber-Investigation Analysis Standard Expression Transitions to Linux Foundation
The Linux Foundation announced the Cyber-investigation Analysis Standard Expression (CASE) is becoming a community project as part of the Cyber Domain Ontology (CDO) project under the Linux Foundation. CASE is an ontology-based specification that supports automated combination and intelligent analysis of cyber-investigation information. CASE concentrates on advancing interoperability and analytics across a broad range of cyber-investigation domains, including digital forensics and incident response (DFIR).
“Becoming part of the Linux Foundation is a major milestone for CASE that will significantly benefit the broader open source and cyber-investigation communities,” said Eoghan Casey, Presiding Director of CASE. “As an evolving standard supporting structured expression and exchange of cyber-investigation information, CASE will substantially enhance efforts to address growing challenges in the modern world, including cyberattacks, ransomware, online fraud, sexual exploitation, and terrorism. Our objective is to create a culture of common comprehension and collaborative problem solving across cyber-investigation domains.”
Organizations involved in joint operations or intrusion investigations can efficiently and consistently exchange information in standard format with CASE, breaking down data silos and increasing visibility across all information sources. Tools that support CASE facilitate correlation of differing data sources and exploration of investigative questions, giving analysts a more comprehensive and cohesive view of available information, opening new opportunities for searching, pivoting, contextual analysis, pattern recognition, machine learning and visualization.
Development of CASE began in 2014 as a collaboration between the DoD Cyber Crime Center (DC3) and MITRE, led by Dr. Eoghan Casey and Sean Barnum, involving the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). In response to international interest, this initiative became an open source evolving standard, with hundreds of participants in industry, government and academia around the globe. Early contributors include the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI), the Italian Institute of Legal Informatics and Judicial Systems (IGSG-CNR), FireEye, and University of Lausanne. CASE governance and community coordination were formalized with support of Harm van Beek, Rich Brown, Ryan Griffith, Cory Hall, Christopher Hargreaves, Jessica Hyde, Deborah Nichols, and Martin Westman. Growing international involvement is tracked on the CASE website.
CASE, built on the Hansken trace model developed and implemented by the NFI, aligns with and extends the Unified Cyber Ontology (UCO). This year has seen the release of UCO 0.7.0, and most recently CASE 0.5.0. CASE and UCO now both are built on SHACL constraints, providing an instance data validation capability. Currently, CASE is developing a representation for Inferences, both human formulated and computer generated, to bind investigative conclusions to supporting evidence and associated chain of custody.
Linux Foundation to Host the Cloud Hypervisor Project
The Linux Foundation announced it will host the Cloud Hypervisor project, which delivers a Virtual Machine Monitor for modern Cloud workloads. Written in Rust with a strong focus on security, features include CPU, memory and device hot plug; support for running Windows and Linux guests; device offload with vhost-user; and a minimal and compact footprint.
The project is supported by Alibaba, ARM, ByteDance, Intel and Microsoft and represented by founding member constituents that include Arjan van de Ven, Fellow at Intel; K. Y Srinivasan, Distinguished Engineer and VP at Microsoft; Michael Zhao, Staff Engineer at ARM, Gerry Liu, Senior Staff Engineer at Alibaba, and Felix Zhang, Senior Software Engineer at ByteDance. Initial focus for the Cloud Hypervisor project will be security and modern operation for Cloud.
K.Y Srinivasan, Advisory Board member from Microsoft adds: “Cloud Hypervisor has matured to the point that moving it to the Linux Foundation is the right move at the right time. As LF continues to standardize key components of the software stack for managing/orchestrating modern workloads, we feel that the Cloud Hypervisor will be an important part of the overall stack. Being part of LF will help us accelerate development and adoption of this key technology.”
