Will We Have Manufacturing Jobs?

Will We Have Manufacturing Jobs?

I just read yet another survey where people think we won’t have any manufacturing jobs in 50 years (or pick your number). Robots and automation will do everything. We will all just sit around, be poor and miserable–except for the few owners.

That begs one essential question. If no one has money to buy things, then what will manufacturing produce? Think about it. Who would be able to buy gasoline, dish washing detergent, Oreo cookies? What we have is a virtuous circle: people have jobs -> people have money -> they buy things -> companies develop new things for them to buy -> people work at those companies to develop and manufacture things -> people have jobs-> etc.

We’ve invested in automation and robots for years. Productivity has not necessarily gone up as a direct result. Read between the lines of yesterday’s post from MAPI.

I’m not arguing from some abstract economic theory. Nor am I sanguine about automation. Nor from a Luddite point of view.

Automation and robots have replaced workers. But if you were in manufacturing plants prior to 1970 and then returned in 2000, you’d have been  shocked. Jobs that literally destroyed the bodies of the workers over time had been redesigned such that repetitive lifting of 50 lb. to 75 lb. objects all day, for example, were no longer done manually. Manufacturing jobs that put people in harms’ way were now done with robots. People were moved to safety.

Plants are healthier, cleaner, safer than ever thought possible. Manufacturing jobs that remain are better paying, more satisfying, and safer than before.

Then let’s look at the human spirit. We were made to create.

I have visited the old city dump in Tijuana. A veritable city exists in the dump. People had no where to go. They moved to the dump. They scrounged around and found things with which to build simple houses. The last time I was there I was amazed. People (probably women) had done many things to make those shacks in the dump livable. I saw curtains of a type on the windows. People trying to plant flowers. I wondered how many people were electrocuted climbing up utility poles to tap into the electrical grid so that their house could have some electrical appliances.

It’s a dump. It’s a terrible place to live. The human spirit of the people was amazing. They made the best of what they had.

I didn’t grow up in an upper middle class enclave. I grew up in a small town where all social classes (OK, we didn’t have many of them) mingled. I hung out with “rednecks” as an adolescent. Guys that drank cheap beer and worked on cars. They could do mechanical things that few today can do. Sort of the spirit of the old blacksmiths who build all manner of things for people.

The spirit to build and create is human. We can organize a macro economy any way we want. We’ll still have people figuring out things to do to help people and figuring out ways to do it.

Dell Enters Embedded PC Market

Dell Enters Embedded PC Market

Dell Embedded PCFaced with a declining market for desktop PCs and a burgeoning market for embedded PC, Dell has announced launch of its first purpose-built industrial PC (IPC) products. This release complements its entry into the Internet of Things market announced last fall at Dell World. [Note: I do some work with Dell on IoT issues, but that has no bearing on reporting this.]

Dell reckons its competitive edge moving into this market include supply chain expertise leading to short lead times, enterprise-class lifecycle, stability, service, built-in security, and global support.

“Customers have consistently told us that current embedded solutions do not meet the level of cost-effective sophistication, scale and support they need for these to be a critical, reliable component of their operations,” said Andy Rhodes, executive director, Commercial IoT Solutions, Dell. “Along with our new embedded products that can be ordered in quantities from one to thousands, Dell will bring our established business heritage to this new market: global scale, end-to-end IT and OT security portfolio, flexible payment solutions, strong customization and award-winning service and support.”

Embedded PC Highlights:

The new Embedded Box PCs offer wired and wireless input/output (I/O) options. The 3000 Series is powered by Intel Atom processors and designed for space-constrained applications, such as retail kiosks, automated vending devices and vehicles.

The 5000 Series is optimized for performance and I/O scalability. Powered by Intel Core processors, it includes two PCI/PCIe card slots for adaptability. It provides high-bandwidth for industrial PC and IoT use cases (multi-HD video streaming apps and high frequency sensor data sources) as well as manufacturing and automation control.

Other features:

  • Operating temperature range from 0°C to 50°C
  • Designed to MIL-STD 810G specifications
  • DIN-rail, VESA, or wall mount options
  • 5-year lifecycle and OEM-ready options
  • Global availability with Dell Support and Deployment services
  • Microsoft Windows 7 Pro, Windows 7 Embedded, Windows 10 Pro and Windows 10 IoT Enterprise LTSB, and Ubuntu Desktop operating systems

Customers can take advantage of Dell’s global availability, trusted security and manageability options, and Dell Support and Deployment services including ProSupport which provides up to five years of end-to-end hardware support for the entire IoT product lifecycle, helping customers maximize their environment and minimize time spent on maintenance. Dell also provides flexible payment solutions to qualified embedded PC customers through Dell Financial Services, a full-service finance company that annually funds approximately U.S. $4 billion of IT equipment for Dell customers across consumer and commercial business segments.

Availability

The Embedded Box PC 5000 Series and 3000 Series will be available in select countries in summer 2016 starting at USD $1,099 and $1,699.

Open Standards for Industrial Internet of Things

Open Standards for Industrial Internet of Things

Open Connectivity Foundation Seeks To Unify IoT

Companies are still organizing into groups seeking to influence standards, whether formal or industry, developing the Internet of Things. Here is an announcement from one pushed by Intel–who is seeking to be the chip supplier to the Internet of Things. I’m not sure how industrial this will be since one entity is the Open Interconnect Consortium whose focus was building and home.

The Open Connectivity Foundation (OCF) formed as an entity whose goal will be to help unify IoT standards so that companies and developers can create IoT solutions and devices that work seamlessly together. The goals according to the Foundation state, via cross-industry collaboration, the OCF will work towards unlocking the massive opportunity of the future global IoT segment, accelerate industry innovation, and help all developers and companies create solutions that map to a single, open IoT interoperability specification. Ultimately, with OCF specifications, protocols and open source projects, a wide-range of consumer, enterprise and embedded devices and sensors from a variety of manufacturers, can securely and seamlessly interact with one another.

The OCF unifies the entirety of the former Open Interconnect Consortium with leading companies at all levels – silicon, software, platform, and finished-goods – dedicated to providing this key interoperability element of an IoT solution. [I find this interesting given that I just attended a conference session with the president of the OIC speaking, no mention of “former”.]

The OCF’s vision for IoT is that billions of connected devices (appliances, phones, computers, industrial equipment) will communicate with one another regardless of manufacturer, operating system, chipset or transport. With the OCF fulfilling this promise, anyone – from a large technology company to a maker in their garage – can adopt the open standards of OCF to innovate and compete, helping ensure secure interoperability for consumers, business, and industry.

About Open Connectivity Foundation

Billions of connected devices (devices, phones, computers and sensors) should be able to communicate with one another regardless of manufacturer, operating system, chipset or physical transport. The Open Connectivity Foundation (OCF) is creating a specification and sponsoring an open source project to make this possible. OCF will unlock the massive opportunity in the IoT market, accelerate industry innovation and help developers and companies create solutions that map to a single open specification. OCF will help ensure secure interoperability for consumers, business, and industry.

TSN Test Bed

National Instruments announced a collaboration with the Industrial Internet Consortium (IIC) and industry leaders Bosch Rexroth, Cisco, Intel, KUKA, Schneider Electric, and TTTech to develop the world’s first Time Sensitive Networking (TSN) testbed. These organizations aim to advance the network infrastructure to support the future of the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and Industry 4.0.

To support new digital capabilities, connected manufacturing, designers and users need more reliable and secure access to smart edge devices. Standard network technologies must evolve to meet the demanding requirements of these next-generation industrial systems and improve the way we operate our machines, electrical grids and transportation systems.

The goal of this testbed is to display the value of new Ethernet IEEE 802 standards, referred to as TSN, in an ecosystem of manufacturing applications. TSN powers a standard, open network infrastructure supporting multivendor interoperability and integration with new guaranteed performance and delivery.

The technology can support real-time control and synchronization, for example between motion applications and robots, over a single Ethernet network. TSN can at the same time support other common traffic found in manufacturing applications, driving convergence between IT and operational technologies. Previously, many real-time control applications were deployed using nonstandard network infrastructure or unconnected networks that leave the devices and data much harder to access, if accessible at all. TSN’s value is derived from driving convergence and increased connectivity, unlocking the critical data needed to achieve the IIoT promise of improved operations driven by big data analytics and enabling new business models based on smart connected systems and machines.

“Testbeds are a major focus and activity of the IIC and its members. Our testbeds are where the innovation and opportunities of the industrial Internet – new technologies, new applications, new products, new services and new processes – can be initiated, thought through and rigorously tested to ascertain their usefulness and viability before coming to market,” said Dr. Richard Soley, executive director of the IIC.

The testbed will:

•   Combine different critical control traffic (such as OPC UA) and best-effort traffic flows on a single, resilient network based on IEEE 802.1 TSN standards

•   Demonstrate TSN’s real-time capability and vendor interoperability using standard, converged Ethernet

•   Assess the security value of TSN and provide feedback on the ability to secure initial TSN functions

•   Show ability for the IIoT to incorporate high-performance and latency-sensitive applications

•   Deliver integration points for smart real-time edge cloud control systems into IIoT infrastructure and application

Quotes:

“We are excited to host the new IIC TSN testbed. TSNs are a critical attribute of a standard Internet model that enables the convergence of real-time control applications and devices onto open, interconnected networks. This technology is necessary for the future of the IIoT and the IIC is providing a community, as well as enabling real-world testbeds, where industry leaders can collaborate to make this a reality,” said Eric Starkloff, executive vice president of global sales and marketing at NI.

“Standardized and open communication is a key feature in our drive and control automation solutions. We at Bosch Rexroth regard the IIC TSN testbed to be a very important contribution for further improvement of vendor interoperability and of exchanging data in an IIoT infrastructure,” said Ralf Koeppe, vice president of engineering and manufacturing electric drives and controls at Bosch Rexroth.

“The new IIC TSN testbed is an opportunity for KUKA to work with other industry leaders to prove standard technology for distributed real-time control systems as needed for edge cloud computing also known as “Fog Computing”. We view TSN, combined with OPC UA Publish/Subscribe, as a core element to implement Industry 4.0 standards,” says Christian Schloegel, chief technology officer of the KUKA group.

“As an innovator in the field of deterministic Ethernet, TTTech is delighted to join forces with industry leaders on the IIC TSN testbed. TTTech brings 20 years’ experience in time-scheduled networks and critical real-time controls to the IIC and looks forward to collaborating with the other testbed members to build an open, standard platform for the IIoT,” said Georg Kopetz, cofounder and member of the executive board for TTTech.

Open Standards for Industrial Internet of Things

Industrial Robotics Market Grew in 2015

Few conversations or panels at the recently completed ARC Industry Forum touched directly on discrete automation. That is, with one notable exception. Robotics. Several people brought up a surge in orders for industrial robotics.

Aside from human-robot collaboration, not much has been exciting in the industrial space. I keep hoping for some advances using some of the innovation being explored in the consumer space.

But I looked up the latest from the Robotic Industries Association (RIA) and learned that robot orders and shipments in North America set new records in 2015. A study of the numbers, though, reveals that the drivers were the same old drivers–automotive industry with coating/dispensing, material handling, and spot welding leading the charge.

Industrial Robotic Sales

A total of 31,464 robots valued at $1.8 billion were ordered from North American companies during 2015, an increase of 14% in units and 11% in dollars over 2014. Robot shipments also set new records, with 28,049 robots valued at $1.6 billion shipped to North American customers in 2015. Shipments grew 10% in units and nine percent in dollars over the previous records set in 2014.

The automotive industry was the primary driver of growth in 2015, with robot orders increasing 19% year over year. Non-automotive robot orders grew five percent over 2014. The leading non-automotive industry in 2015 in terms of order growth was Semiconductors and Electronics at 35%.

According to Alex Shikany, Director of Market Analysis for RIA, the fastest growing applications for robot orders in North America in 2015 were Coating and Dispensing (+49%), Material Handling (+24%), and Spot Welding (+22%). RIA estimates that some 260,000 robots are now at use in North American factories, which is third to Japan and China in robot use.

The recent record performance by the robotics market in North America is concurrent with falling unemployment. Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the unemployment rate in the United States reached 4.9%, its lowest level since February of 2008.

“Today there are more opportunities than ever before in the robotics industry,” said Jeff Burnstein, President of RIA. “The continuing growth in robotics is opening many new job opportunities for people who can program, install, run, and maintain robots. In fact, if you look closer at the jobs discussion, automation is helping to save and create jobs. A lot of companies tell us they wouldn’t be in business without robotics and related automation.”

Burnstein noted that the RIA and its sister group AIA – Advancing Vision + Imaging, are seeing the impacts of the growth in demand for automation in upcoming events like the International Collaborative Robots Workshop and The Vision Show, slated for May 3-5, 2016 in Boston.

“Collaborative robots are the hottest topic in robotics today, and we are expecting a strong turnout in Boston for the workshop,” he said. “With interest in vision and imaging at an all-time high, AIA expects its flagship trade show, The Vision Show, to draw record attendance this year,” Burnstein added. Visit Robotics Online and Vision Online respectively for more information on these two collocated events.

Open Standards for Industrial Internet of Things

A New Distributed Control System?

The undercurrent talk of the ARC Advisory Group Industry Forum this week in Orlando was how ARC’s Andy Chatha promoted the ExxonMobil/Lockheed Martin initiative to develop a new type of distributed control system.

I have to dash this initial thought off since I have about 20 minutes to get to my plane home. My week has been non-stop meetings from 7 am until at least 11 pm all week. This morning was a bit of a breather. Lots of stuff going on.

However, the ExxonMobil initiative provoked much discussion, rumors, speculation, whatever.

Part of the problem is that the program has just been announced and therefore is not defined.

The basic problem seems to be that Exxon is operating with very old DCS technology and has a great need to upgrade. But “ripping and replacing” would be very expensive. From conversations that I can report without naming names, I gather that they are looking for a software-defined distributed control residing above the current hardware control layer. The further wish is that the hardware layer would include parts interchangeable from supplier to supplier.

It hopes that this would be an industry-wide consortium that would drive standards for the software and the hardware. It has requested cooperation from technology suppliers as well as its peers in the oil & gas industry.

There are pieces of this that look very interesting. And, of course pieces that stand probably the proverbial snowball’s chance.

“Software defined” is of course developing in several industries (think Ethernet switches?).

My experience is that this sort of industry-wide standards development takes so much time that the technology it envisions is obsolete.

I’ll have more later after giving the idea more thought.

Meanwhile, I have announcements from Inductive Automation, Honeywell, Bentley Systems, Yokogawa, ABB, Bedrock Automation, and more coming tomorrow when I get a chance to think and write.

Follow this blog

Get a weekly email of all new posts.